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Soumya Profile picture
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6 Jan, 6 tweets, 1 min read
Yikes: A popular modeling tool estimates that 1 in 17 LA County residents currently has COVID.

When ranking large US counties by their COVID prevalence, the top 5 are all in California.
LA County runs a similar model, which estimated two weeks ago that 1 in 95 residents were infectious with COVID. LA's calculation shows how many people in the community are *currently infectious,* so it doesn't include people in the hospital or who aren't contagious anymore.
For that reason, LA County's estimate is likely to be lower because it's excluding some people with the virus. But the county typically releases a new model on Wednesdays, so we should get a new one today.
These numbers really show how much California is struggling with COVID right now, particularly the southern half of the state.

San Bernardino: 1 in 12 estimated to currently have COVID
LA: 1 in 17
Riverside: 1 in 17
Fresno: 1 in 21
Kern: 1 in 25
Ventura: 1 in 24
Orange: 1 in 24
covid19-projections.com/infections/sum…
oops, my bad, Kern should be 1 in 22

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More from @skarlamangla

Soumya Profile picture
8 Jan
since everyone in LA just learned about false negatives ... spoiler alert: they exist for every test!
whatever COVID test you use, it's measuring the amount of virus in whatever place was swabbed -- your cheek, lower nose, upper nose, throat etc -- but sometimes there isn't enough virus at that very moment to show up on a test, even though you are infected
as the virus replicates, it eventually will reach a level where it shows up on a test. but that doesn't mean that up until that point that you haven't been infecting other people, even if you have negative test results in hand
Read 12 tweets
Soumya Profile picture
8 Jan
LA Mayor Eric Garcetti has been promoting COVID testing for asymptomatic people for months. Yet when the company applied for FDA authorization, it said that the test is “limited to patients with symptoms of COVID-19.”

Not patients who are asymptomatic.

latimes.com/california/sto…
If you've taken a Curative test in LA, you know that you just swab yourself. But the FDA guidance for the test says it should be "directly observed and directed during the sample collection process by a trained health care worker at the specimen collection site." 🙃
.@mayalau asked Garcetti about this issue just now.

His answer: "The simplest answer is 92,000. Ninety-two thousand people, a full third of all the positives that we've gotten, have been from asymptomatic people."
Read 7 tweets
Soumya Profile picture
7 Jan
Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse in LA: The FDA is warning that the COVID tests used at our testing sites have a high false negative rate. In other words, they often say you don't have COVID when you do. fda.gov/medical-device…
Curative, the company that makes the tests, processes 35,000 samples a day from LA, according to its CEO.

Overall, LA County is testing around 85,000 people a day, so Curative testing makes up a huge portion of that. They run testing at the massive site at Dodger Stadium.
The FDA warns that Curative tests should be "limited to symptomatic individuals."

This is so different from what LA officials have been promoting: testing for everyone, symptoms or not.

In fact, testing of asymptomatic people has been a major point of pride for LA.
Read 12 tweets
Soumya Profile picture
6 Jan
In LA, nearly 1 in 4 people being tested for COVID are coming back positive With so much transmission, it becomes even harder to turn it around.

"I'm more concerned than ever before," says LA County health director Barbara Ferrer. "This is a health crisis of epic proportions."
Hospitals are accepting more patients than they can discharge. The rate of new cases is double of what we saw last month.
Another 258 deaths COVID were reported today. "People who were otherwise leading healthy, productive lives are now passing away because of a chance encounter" with COVID, says Ferrer.
Read 5 tweets
Soumya Profile picture
6 Jan
New estimates from LA County put R at .97, which means that over time, the outbreak here should shrink. Anything more than 1 means it will grow.

But this trend is likely to not last long, given socializing over Christmas and New Years, officials say.
If transmission during the last 10 days in December and early January was similar to the transmission that occurred around Thanksgiving, LA officials expect shortages
in the number of hospital beds and continued shortages in ICU beds over the next 4 weeks.
Mobility data suggests that there was a lot of travel and socializing at the end of December. If there hadn't been, our outbreak would be peaking right now and starting to decline soon. file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/dhs/1…
Read 4 tweets
Soumya Profile picture
6 Jan
Ventura County is getting slammed by COVID. It borders LA County and is the 13th biggest in the state, so not particularly surprising, but scary nonetheless.
The county reported on Monday that 26 people had died from COVID, the most ever reported in a single day and far above the previous high.
The eight hospitals in the county are running dangerously low on ICU beds. Hospitalizations and deaths are expected to mount -- and hospitals are preparing in grim ways.

Read 8 tweets

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