Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse in LA: The FDA is warning that the COVID tests used at our testing sites have a high false negative rate. In other words, they often say you don't have COVID when you do. fda.gov/medical-device…
Curative, the company that makes the tests, processes 35,000 samples a day from LA, according to its CEO.

Overall, LA County is testing around 85,000 people a day, so Curative testing makes up a huge portion of that. They run testing at the massive site at Dodger Stadium.
The FDA warns that Curative tests should be "limited to symptomatic individuals."

This is so different from what LA officials have been promoting: testing for everyone, symptoms or not.

In fact, testing of asymptomatic people has been a major point of pride for LA.
The FDA notice doesn't differentiate between the oral and nasal swabs. I'm not sure if LA Curative sites use nasal swabs -- I've only ever seen oral. But there have been concerns in the past about oral swabs not being sensitive enough.
Our reporters did a story in April about the risk LA was taking by adopting a testing method that was not 100% certain and could yield false negatives, featuring this reassuring quote: " “This kind of test is better than nothing."

latimes.com/california/sto…
In June, LA health services director Dr. Christina Ghaly said that too many false negatives had convinced them to switch from oral to nasal swab. But that hasn't happened uniformly across LA County.
Ghaly: "While oral approach was effective, studies -- multiple studies -- have shown that a switch to the nasal swab is better and leads to a better specimen collection, better sensitivity and will lead to fewer false negative test results."
I don't actually know what Curative's false negative rate is. In this story it says 10%, but the FDA didn't specify. dot.la/curative-kiosk…
So far, this is what Curative CEO has said about the debacle.

"The firm 'disagrees with the assessment' made by FDA that the test has performance issues, he said. The firm intends to publish the results of a large clinical trial soon." modernhealthcare.com/supply-chain/f…
tldr; don't roam free, ignore pandemic precautions, go to your high-risk job and then get a test and decide you're not infected with the coronavirus. even better tests than this one have false negatives. a test is not a passport to do whatever you want.
here's a cautionary tale about false negatives with any kind of testing: latimes.com/california/sto…
how Curative became LA's provider of COVID tests: labusinessjournal.com/news/2021/jan/…

“Mayor Garcetti is incredibly grateful for their partnership," said the mayor's spokesman.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Soumya

Soumya Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @skarlamangla

8 Jan
since everyone in LA just learned about false negatives ... spoiler alert: they exist for every test!
whatever COVID test you use, it's measuring the amount of virus in whatever place was swabbed -- your cheek, lower nose, upper nose, throat etc -- but sometimes there isn't enough virus at that very moment to show up on a test, even though you are infected
as the virus replicates, it eventually will reach a level where it shows up on a test. but that doesn't mean that up until that point that you haven't been infecting other people, even if you have negative test results in hand
Read 12 tweets
8 Jan
LA Mayor Eric Garcetti has been promoting COVID testing for asymptomatic people for months. Yet when the company applied for FDA authorization, it said that the test is “limited to patients with symptoms of COVID-19.”

Not patients who are asymptomatic.

latimes.com/california/sto…
If you've taken a Curative test in LA, you know that you just swab yourself. But the FDA guidance for the test says it should be "directly observed and directed during the sample collection process by a trained health care worker at the specimen collection site." 🙃
.@mayalau asked Garcetti about this issue just now.

His answer: "The simplest answer is 92,000. Ninety-two thousand people, a full third of all the positives that we've gotten, have been from asymptomatic people."
Read 7 tweets
6 Jan
In LA, nearly 1 in 4 people being tested for COVID are coming back positive With so much transmission, it becomes even harder to turn it around.

"I'm more concerned than ever before," says LA County health director Barbara Ferrer. "This is a health crisis of epic proportions."
Hospitals are accepting more patients than they can discharge. The rate of new cases is double of what we saw last month.
Another 258 deaths COVID were reported today. "People who were otherwise leading healthy, productive lives are now passing away because of a chance encounter" with COVID, says Ferrer.
Read 5 tweets
6 Jan
New estimates from LA County put R at .97, which means that over time, the outbreak here should shrink. Anything more than 1 means it will grow.

But this trend is likely to not last long, given socializing over Christmas and New Years, officials say.
If transmission during the last 10 days in December and early January was similar to the transmission that occurred around Thanksgiving, LA officials expect shortages
in the number of hospital beds and continued shortages in ICU beds over the next 4 weeks.
Mobility data suggests that there was a lot of travel and socializing at the end of December. If there hadn't been, our outbreak would be peaking right now and starting to decline soon. file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/dhs/1…
Read 4 tweets
6 Jan
Yikes: A popular modeling tool estimates that 1 in 17 LA County residents currently has COVID.

When ranking large US counties by their COVID prevalence, the top 5 are all in California.
LA County runs a similar model, which estimated two weeks ago that 1 in 95 residents were infectious with COVID. LA's calculation shows how many people in the community are *currently infectious,* so it doesn't include people in the hospital or who aren't contagious anymore.
For that reason, LA County's estimate is likely to be lower because it's excluding some people with the virus. But the county typically releases a new model on Wednesdays, so we should get a new one today.
Read 6 tweets
6 Jan
Ventura County is getting slammed by COVID. It borders LA County and is the 13th biggest in the state, so not particularly surprising, but scary nonetheless.
The county reported on Monday that 26 people had died from COVID, the most ever reported in a single day and far above the previous high.
The eight hospitals in the county are running dangerously low on ICU beds. Hospitalizations and deaths are expected to mount -- and hospitals are preparing in grim ways.

Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!