Catchup on all my $TSLA tweets since Oct 2019. a ton of funds were balls deep short with insane size, with a breakeven price of around $305 (presplit). So i explained repeatedly that if we reclaimed $305 it would result in a MASSIVE demand imbalance due to..
delta hedging, short covering + fed pumping & retail chasing etc, that could catapult $TSLA to $1000 by june 2019 & eventually $1600 (presplit).
As of right now there is over $30 BILLION worth of demand from bagged shorts alone, ready to clog the bids at every dip.
Add to this the constant delta hedging and dumb ass retail who loves to chase overbought shit, plus the $SPY inclusion index buying plus fund managers who "chase performance" etc and it doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure out that there is way more demand than supply.
This imbalance can continue "forever" until
a) a MAJOR negative catalyst hits
b) FED starts to raise interest rates dramatically
c) majority of shorts are all squeezed out
d) majority of retail & small funds are fully long (no one left to buy)
Only then will supply dominate.
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it hit a high of $774 today. that's a split adjusted price of $3,870.
that's higher than $AMZN 's fat ass $3552 all time high. yes, $TSLA caught up with AMZN's stock price (not marketcap), & is ~$30 away from replacing $FB as the world's 5th largest company
As someone who uses fundamental analysis daily, does this make sense on a fundamental level?
FUCK NO !!
Which is why i constantly remind u fucks that fundamentals are just 1/3rd of the thesis (the other being TECHNICALS & sentiment).
SUPPLY/DEMAND imbalance is EVERYTHING !!
A stock can be as overvalued as a "made in Zimbabwe" iPhone or as undervalued as a fat chick's self-esteem, but as long as MORE people are aggressively buying than ppl are aggressively selling, the stock will go UP. period.
So trade on the side of the imbalance UNTIL it shifts.
I cant stress how important this is. SYSTEMATIZE EVERYTHING!! You cannot master a skill unless you standardize every variable that surrounds it. Having the same, CONSISTENT entry/exit/stock selection rules helps u quickly spot what is wrong and what needs to change.
If u use a different criteria for every trade, and enter/exit randomly, how will u know what to change once shit hits the fan? was it the entries? the exits? the stock selection process? u wouldnt fucking know since u're all over the place and ur variables are constantly changing
When u "trade on the fly" with no real system, every day you'll have a different hindsight ass reason as to why the trade failed. But at least when ALL ur variables are CONSTANT, it is SO much easier to look back at ur stats and spot what went wrong and what needs to improve.
very key day for $TSLA today. Longs are positioned HUGE on the 700C (again). So u already know what the gameplan for MMs is (attempt to bag the 700C or panic cover/hedge).
So if they fail to bag the 700C today = grab calls for the squeeze.
If they succeed = grab puts
0 bias
$TSLA Hope everyone capitalized nicely off the delta hedging/call covering squeeze . As always remember to avoid the usual “into the close” shenanigans (remember market is closed tomorrow so today is a pseudo expiration friday pretty much).
Cheers 🍻
$TSLA anddd here goes the post squeeze wrecking of the 700C, to crush whoever was still holding and to cover the rest of the short calls. From a high of $19 this morning to a low of $1.30 just now. Same tactic as dec 19 all over again. You simply cant make this shit up 😂😂.
Each time u look at your PNL during a trading session (doesnt matter if it's red, or green), which part of your brain automatically activates, becomes hyperactive, and pulls bloodflow/oxygen away from other brain regions, leading to an increase in impulsive behavior.
In layman terms, it is the part of ur brain responsible for fight or flight related emotions such as fear, aggression/anger etc. It is MUCH more powerful than ur frontal cortex (the part that keeps u logical, disciplined )
The 2 parts are always engaged in a tug of war for dominance.
When the amygdala (emotional you) activates, ur prefrontal cortex (logical you) weakens, & vice versa.
Both cannot be in total control at the same time, & since the amygdala is much older & primitive, it is STRONGER
Ever felt a certain way, or void of motivation, and then suddenly you hear a song that pumps u up, and out of nowhere u feel like conquering everything? That's a HUGE clue. write that song down. find out WHY it pumps u up. then try to find other songs that have a similar effect
Then create a playlist full of those songs and call it "Morning Motivation".
Reserve that playlist for the morning only. if u play it all day long eventually the songs will get boring and will lose their effect on ur mood.
When a song stops having that effect on u, remove it.
Every time I discuss the importance of tracking data/setups etc, the next question is usually "what should I track".
My response, EVERYTHING. You cant discover which factors are reliable, and which are meaningless, unless you track EVERY variable and then look for correlations.
This image is a quick example of what ur data tracking sheet should look like, at the bare minimum. When I first started this journey yrs ago (mastery of alldayfaders), I obviously had a FUCK ton more columns, but this is just a quick prototype to give u an idea of where to start
I then tracked every, single, runner.
I repeat:
every,
single,
runner.
ZERO exceptions.
For every stock, i wanted to know all its metrics (fundamentals, technicals, sentiment), and how each metric affected its subsequent performance (all day fade, squeeze, or chopfest).