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7 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Urgh, good morning. US 10 yr is at 1.039% so a huge move on Georgia results. Markets non reactive to what's happening in DC. The question regarding Trump has always been whether he'd put the country first (not to mention the party) & the last 2 months cement people's worst fear.
The question people ask is why markets so non reactive to what's happening in DC (Facebook + Twitter blocking Trump account temporarily)+violence but let's not forget that markets ignored the summer of violence in the US that was just as if not more intense. Why? This shall past.
Pence & the Republican party is more important than Trump et al and Pence already agreed to certify & w/ the Georgia loss (not final yet but already 1 seat lost), Trump is clearly a liability not an asset in 2024. Hence, markets looking past him when pricing future earnings.
Silver lining of today's event is that Trump 2024 is totally not gonna happen & so perhaps people can stop fixating about him & focus on the US & the people that are clearly suffering from this pandemic & key issues like housing, education, health & jobs.

Country>Party>Person.👈🏻

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Trinh Profile picture
7 Jan
Good morning!!! Today is 8 January and US Treasury 10 year is at 1.08%!!! You know who likes this? Banks! Steepening/reflation trade hard at work in early January already 🤗.
Well, it's now 1.09%. Let's look at the global vaccine update! Israel & UAE are rocking the chart. UK, US and Denmark also climbing! Europe has begun its effort and showing up now. Image
Here is markets post Georgia Senate races & Biden certification:
*Equities up! (More fiscal = more growth from the US) while rates & QE stay low thanks to le Fed
*USD strengthens on steepener + stronger growth expectations of the US
*Bond sell-off not just in the US but also Asia Image
Read 8 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
7 Jan
React the same way it did when the riots/looting/violence occurred all summer long & there were plenty of champions & people appalled.

Violence/protests/rioting come back full circle today, this time not from the left but the right.

It is shocking but we have seen it before.
Be scared of the mob. Eric Hoffer said that it is okay to lock your door & lay low until the madness passes over & not join them.

Read the True Believer by Eric Hoffer. Wise man.

People that follow charismatic leaders reflect a trend of our time - the rise of disillusionment.
Hoffer states that mass movements begin with a widespread "desire for change" from discontented people who place their locus of control outside their power and who also have no confidence in existing culture or traditions.
Read 5 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
7 Jan
Congress certifies Biden win!!! 🇺🇸 There you go, markets saw that it would happen & rallied anyway! Georgia results more key & also the fact that Pence + GOP et al were going along w/ certification = things will get done.
I always thought this would happen as the GOP is more pragmatic than skeptics fear & Trump is just one person & institutions move on & country > party > person.
The fact that VP Mike Pence + key figures of the GOP, including Mitch McConnell, said that they would not block the certification proceeding sealed its deal. Doubtful that the Supreme Court would do anything for Trump.

Ironically, Biden got 306 to 232, same as Trump in 2016.
Read 6 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
6 Jan
Asset inflation in Vietnam too due to low rates. Yes, Vietnam is a frontier market but it has accumulated savings so deposits being channeled into stocks as rates got slashed thanks to Covid-19. 🇻🇳💸
In Vietnam, people traditionally favor real estate (hard asset) and also depositing into banks as you get pretty lucrative rates. That said, rates have fallen (Vietnam funds locally cheaper than China for its gov debt by 77bps) not just for govies but also deposits & so equities!
This is noteworthy because Vietnam is a frontier market & the fact that it has so much liquidity & funds so cheaply locally tells you that ratings don't = funding costs & liquidity more king & rating agencies are behind/not so useful if sov' not needing external financing.

And!
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
6 Jan
Good morning - another gloomy cold day in Hong Kong but you can't tell from markets raging over night. And guess what? US manufacturing ISM was off the chart 💥🇺🇸🥳!!! Image
New orders were pretty encouraging & also employment as well. Eyes are on this Georgia Senate & question is whether the Democrats will take both seats to fulfill their dreams of fiscal on steroid. That has sectoral & also fiscal deficit implications.

China services out soon.
Actually just out!!! Just like manu, slowed to 56.3 from 57.8 so expanding but at a slower pace. Composite slowed to 55.8 from 57.5.

In other words, watch Chinese rates as the slowing of expansion begs the question whether rates can remain high!
Read 6 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
5 Jan
Vaccine facts:

The most widely purchased vaccine is AstraZeneca, developed by the UK, & produced by India The Serum Institute of India Ltd.

Why is AstraZeneca so popular? Well, its storage is so chill, as in literally & figuratively as it requires only regular refridgeration!
AstraZeneca is not as effective but defo more user friendly so we're talking about volume vs quality & w/ Covid-19 raging & a wrecking ball of lives & economies, cheapo (in storage) is better.

While the UK & India haven't done well for Covid, maybe they'll shine via vaccines🤗.
And this is why AstraZeneca is so popular! Obvs India got tons (it got the most doses of vaccines in the world w/ 2.2bn of Astra + Novavax). Meanwhile, did you know that Brazil is signing up for AstraZeneca too? So that's your South-South EM connection on Brazil & India 🇧🇷🇮🇳💉.
Read 10 tweets

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