Let's start off with: I don't think any trade experts are surprised by this. It is why the TCA did not do much on SPS. It is why the EU did not offer much on SPS. It is why the UK did not ask much on SPS.
But it also shows that the popular slogan "after Brexit we'll have the same standards as before, so why would anything change in trade" was wrong - and worse, it was purposefully trying to stifle a necessary debate.
And this leads me to the next point: I have no issue with changing the rules, I have a massive issue with how it is done. Here's what we should discuss:
The decisive question: What are the standards the UK as a country wants. To inform this debate, we need the following information:
1) Environmental impact of the various choices. 2) Economic impact of the various choices. This bit includes trade impact and here two issues come into play:
a) making trade with the EU more difficult
b) making trade with the US easier
Both of these points will include some complex assessments such as:
- with regard to the EU: SPS checks are already in place, to what extent will GMO divergence complicate things further / make things more difficult for non-GMO producers?
- with regard to the US:
are there actual agri benefits given the US is a large producer, will this create market opportunities for the UK - or just for the US on the UK market (so is there a problem with defensive interests)
are there benefits with regard to a possibly FTA?
Finally - h/t to @MorgenrothEdgar - what problems would divergence create with regard to the NI Protocol?
Let's hope the quality of the debate surprises me...
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For two days we now had surprise at the fact that Rules of origin become relevant in UK-EU trade. A surprise that, as @SamuelMarcLowe has eloquently pointed out, surprises trade people. So: a very very short thread on: WHY are there rules of origin?
And FTA is concluded between 2 (or more) parties. So it benefits those parties. Not others. What does that mean for goods? It benefits goods "from those parties". How do you know that the goods are from those parties? Well, that's what RoOs do.
Why can we not just get rid of this unnecessary red tape? Quite simple. Let's say the government says: there shall be no red tape.
From tomorrow on, China would export every single item it exports to the UK via the EU. And it would be tariff-free.
Reserving judgment on all else: industry, please be aware that the new relationship between the UK and the EU entails massive non-tariff barriers. Roughly the ones you know from other Free Trade Agreements. /1
The statement of the Prime Minister that there will be no non-tariff barriers is simply wrong. Prepare. /2
I only believe this after seeing an official source, because this tweet is erroneous on several aspects:
- MPs don't get a vote on ratification. Never did. Not provided for in UK law.
- MPs vote on implementing legislation. They'd have to for provisional application (thread)
Some more detail: UK law knows TWO ways of treaty control:
CRaG treaty scrutiny - which relates to ratification and does not include a mandatory vote
Treaty implementing legislation. Here a vote is required.
The only exception to this I am aware of is the "meaningful vote" that a statute provided for with regard to the withdrawal agreement. That was the one instance in which Parliament had a mandatory vote on a treaty for ratification purposes. It did not work well. It was abolished.
1) The border closures we have seen temporarily seems to be based largely on UK government information. That led the UK government to drastic measures in the UK. Is @ABridgen alleging the government of lying? If so, he should come out and say that, but he better has proof.
2) What the government said is that the mutated virus spreads more easily. This alone makes it more dangerous. Why? Because one of the greatest risks of corona is overburdening health systems. More spread, greater risk.