Genuinely jaw dropping that such large companies were unaware of what was going to happen. Also reflects something which didn't happen - the recruitment of trade policy specialists by large UK companies.
To be blunt, it was known by mid December 2019 that frictionless UK-EU trade was going to end. If UK based companies with significant EU trade didn't realise this would have consequences for them then big questions need to be asked of their leadership.
(I and others in trade twitter are available at exorbitant rates)
I feel like not everyone was following Brexit trade twitter last year.
How to make sense of the increasing number of UK-EU trade disruption stories?
In short - outside of a single market product checks and people working restrictions are inevitable. And outside a customs union you will have tariffs and / or rules of origin.
Detail ---> 1/
The UK decided to leave a Customs Union. Within that Customs Union, no tariffs, just a common external tariff or preferential rates for bilateral deals or developing countries. Hence, distribution hubs in one country for all make a lot of sense. 2/
Outside a Customs Union our choice was tariffs under WTO rules or remove them subject to rules of origin with a deal. We chose the latter, but it means we can't just import from China, rebadge, and get zero tariffs from the EU. As we could until December 31. 3/
An "instinctive free trader" overseeing the largest rise in trade barriers in living memory, and "pro-migration at heart" while dramatically curtailing these rights in Europe. So could the main similarity with Trump be power for its own sake on this reading?
The problem with the reading of Johnson as a socially liberal politician is it isn't remotely the policy he's putting into practice, whatever the rhetoric. He isn't much bothered by the constitution or parliamentary scrutiny. But of course right now Trump association is toxic.
The fair assessment of Johnson and Trump is there are plenty of populist similarities, but ultimately Johnson is cleverer, marginally less shameless, and certainly less incendiary when it comes to open racists. And that matters a lot.
Just to be clear. The new GB to Northern Ireland or Calais border processes can be improved. But not eliminated. Or ever completely predictable. And that will over time have economic consequences.
Exports of Scottish seafood always looked vulnerable to post Brexit border checks, sadly this is so far the case. The UK government could seek some extra agreement, but it would cost in some way.
Remember, we haven't seen trade barriers go up on such a major trade route in modern history. We didn't know what would happen.
My initial thought is we're seeing how quickly adjustments are made in modern supply chains, starting not surprisingly with fast moving consumer goods.
Similarly another fast moving market, financial services, saw big changes to trade on what was in effect Brexit day one. Other markets with sunk investments are likely to take more time to adjust. scottishfinancialreview.com/2021/01/04/lon…
So there's a trade adjustment, less UK-EU trade almost certainly, not fully compensated with more UK-global trade, and then there will be a UK economy adjustment to this, likely to take some time. But this also means continued investment uncertainty.
At the height of TTIP arguments (a US-EU trade deal passed for controversy in 2015) then Trade Minister @Lord_Livingston liked to quote Daniel Patrick Moynihan "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts".
I fear in 2021 the second part no longer applies.
And when we all have our own facts, or rather we fit into different camps e.g. election was / was not stolen, there is no room for debate. The US election was stolen and the UK establishment tried to do the same with Brexit are seen as facts, not opinions, by many.
And when there are competing facts there is no such thing as an impartial expert or media. By basing my opinions on my selection of the facts I am, in the eyes of people with the alternate fact set, biased. Or just wrong. And probably paid. By the EU. Or Russia. Or someone.
Despicable comment but sadly neither a surprise nor an isolated example. You can forget the UK moving on from Brexit while those comparing remainers to those storming a legislature are given roles by the UK government.