A QUICK THREAD on #MUFC’s recent failure to win semi-finals, to add vital context to what will no doubt be the media’s latest crusade against Ole Gunnar Solskjaer...
Firstly, it must be acknowledged as an achievement to even get to 4 semi-finals in the first season & a half as permanent manager. Had #MUFC not done that, this narrative wouldn’t be possible. Compare to these records of a couple of recently much-revered managers below...
Klopp took over a side that’d already lost 2 SFs the previous szn. He then failed to win a trophy the first 4 times he reached the semis (losing 3 finals)
In 5+ seasons, he’s reached the SFs or beyond just 5 times
In 5+ szns at Spurs, Poch made 5 semis & failed to win a trophy
The reality is, SFs & Finals are hard to win, especially when transitioning to a young team & new style, & meeting teams like City, Chelsea, & Sevilla. But has progress been apparent in these 4 ties? Are they getting closer? Or is it really cause for greater concern?...
Let’s look in chronological order
City 19/20
#MUFC beat Chelsea on the way, but were at no position in their evolution to rival one of the 2 outstanding teams in the country over 2 legs. They started with Jones, Pereira, Lingard, James, & Williams, & only lost by 1 goal. Credit
Chelsea 19/20
#MUFC were in the thick of an almighty run to get top-4. You may think different, but I believe this to be the correct priority. 3 days earlier they played Palace. 3 days later, WHU. Martial, Pogba, & Greenwood started all the PL games, & were rested for the SF...
Solskjaer clearly felt the risk of a sacrifice was needed, & this was the lesser of two evils to give key players a much needed break. I agree. And, if that was the priority, it worked. #MUFC beat Leicester 7 days later in arguably the biggest “cup final” of their season.
Sevilla 19/20
Clear progress. #MUFC fit & focussed on trying to win a trophy. Tactical set-up & general performance was DOMINANT. Only finishing (& a bit of luck) missing. The way Solskjaer approached the game & had his team playing deserved credit. Sometimes it’s not your day!
City 20/21
#MUFC are not yet complete, but at a stage of their development when they can truly rival top teams tactically & psychologically. Rather than with an underdog spirit, they met City at their level. City played well, yet only won by 2 set-pieces, creating little else...
The tactical setup from Ole limited City to just 1.45 xG (even with the big set-piece chance for Stones). Their average xG since start of last szn is 2.48 (PL stats). #MUFC also had many big chances to create, but individuals had off nights & lacked killer actions in final 3rd.
Conclusions
Last szn, #MUFC probably paid the price for their own success - reaching so many SFs, playing so many games with a lower calibre squad, & needing to rest. The first 2 semis were a sizeable challenge, given quality of players available, & other priorities. Continued..
The last two SFs have been MUCH better. #MUFC have been much more ready, & tactically set-up well. Bad finishing, final pass, or defending set-pieces the difference. Individual issues, rather than manager issues. Things young players will deal better with at the top level in time
Early semis have been more an achievement than a failure. Latest semis have been decided by fine margins & #MUFC are getting closer to winning one. The squad will be near complete in terms of age & additions next szn. If it’s still happening then, start to ask questions. Not now.
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Jose: 21.5%
LVG: 25.2%
Moyes: 25.5%
OGS: 32.4%
OGS since Jan: 41.5%
This season: 50%
Win %
LVG: 52.4%
Moyes: 52.9%
OGS: 55.6%
Jose: 58.3%
OGS since Jan: 63.4%
OGS this season: 61.1%
Klopp’s first 3 seasons: 52.3% (best season 57.4%)
Big picture
Solskjaer is rebuilding #MUFC into a sustainable attacking team, while maintaining a win % that surpasses the others. All while removing yrs of deadwood; dealing with Raiola’s disruption; while advancing youth, & reinvigorating the academy. Further results WILL come with maturity
Last season, the average lineup was the youngest in the PL. This season, the 3rd youngest (at 25.6)
SAF always claimed 27-28 age for a title win
Last 9 champions have been 27+
The “can’t win anything with kids” side was still 26.5
#MUFC have made mistakes post-SAF, but behind-the-scenes they've already put them right. Yet, many fans, journalists, & ex-players choose to stick with the narrative that the club is poorly run: analysis hasn't caught up! A THREAD of 10 common misconceptions:
1st a DISCLAIMER: I do not claim to have inside knowledge of the club. Everything detailed below is via available sources & my own observations & analysis
Any figures given are approximate from publicly available reports/websites
Special credit to UWS interview with Ed Woodward
I'll start with the easy ones...
1) OGS isn't a good enough coach
Already outwitted Pep, Jose, Nagelsman, Tuchel, Klopp with variety of tactics; kept an injury-hit sub-par squad in top-4 contention; dispelled 'low-block' criticism with 1 Jan signing; built attacking philosophy.
The media’s propensity for negatives, along with lazy journalism, has seen little attempt to really understand what Solskjaer’s #MUFC tenure has entailed, or his qualities. Instead, simply citing bad results to mean bad management
Here’s the OTHER side of the story...
1) No “top job” on his CV is a nonsensical argument - it’s often been proved this is NOT required. Guardiola & Zidane both had less experience when they got the Barca & Real jobs. Conte & Simeone had not coached top-flight European teams when they got Juventus & Atlético jobs...
2) As for his bespoke qualities for this #MUFC situation - as a past player, & a successful striker coach & Reserve team coach at the club, Solskjaer knows first-hand the type of spirit, style of play, & personality required at the club to build a worthy Utd squad & culture...