1/ China Unicom/Mobile/Unicom HK are the only 3 co's on DoD's “Communist Chinese military companies” list trading on Wall Street, so using delisting to comply w/ Trump's EO is a one-time thing. defense.gov/Newsroom/Relea…
2/ Damage to the telcos minimal: only ~2% of combined float traded on NYSE & almost all biz activities are inside China.
They've been trading in NYSE for many years, so used to need access to US capital to grow as companies, not any more, esp given growth of HK/SH/SZ exchanges.
3/ Why did Trump issue EO to accelerate delisting, when Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA) was poised to pass & force delisting anyway?
It's a great way to rack up more “Fuck China” points, burnish image as toughest US politician on China.
4/ Image helps w/ either a 2024 run or "kingmaker" role to GOP's new generation of ambitious, opportunistic China hawks, like Senators Hawley, Rubio, Cruz, Cotton.
Lame duck delisting also limits Biden adm's policy options, must look for new "surface area" to be tougher.
5/ One possible direction is EU, as signaled in this tweet on China-EU investment agreement by incoming NSA Jake Sullivan.
At least 2 co's on "Communist Chinese military companies” list are trading in Frankfurt. Will they be pressured to delist too?
6/ Lastly, we may finally see use of “Unreliable Entity List” from Ministry of Commerce to reciprocate/retaliate. Which US co will be added? My current bet: Cisco.
First of a 4-part series that's been in my head for probably 4 years, on what Globalization 2.0 looks like and what kind of people, products, paradigms & opportunities will be “global by nature.”
"China’s Semiconductor Future: What Can $1.4 Trillion Buy?"
Enjoyed writing my 1st column on @thewirechina + working w/ @DavidBarboza2 to help simplify/demystify semiconductors & China's proposed 1.4T investment in that sector.
A semiconductor chip's life cycle is complex, though can be roughly broken down to 4 big stages:
- acquire raw material
- design chips
- marry the design to manufacturing capabilities
- produce at scale
Some stages can be accelerated w/ more 💰💰, i.e. raw material (China produce the most silicon of any country) & building huge chip fabs for mass production.
Others (e.g. chip design) require brain power, R&D, IP & long-term patience — things that money can’t buy.
1/ Product synergy exists w/ either Azure or Oracle Cloud. Running TikTok during hypergrowth w/o issues is legit accomplishment for a cloud, will help differentiate in a heated global cloud race.
E-commerce w/ Walmart is more longterm, could help differentiate Walmart+ later.
2/ User+data valuable #obvi. Data Density determines a lot of the value in a tech biz, *more* valuable IMHO than core AI tech in TikTok.
Easier to build AI engine if you have the data than the other way around. (Buyer may not get the tech anyways due to China's new regulation.)