Kevin Xu Profile picture
7 Jan, 7 tweets, 3 min read
0/ "Lame Duck Delisting"

If nothing else changes, 3 Chinese telcos will delist from NYSE by 4am ET next Monday, Jan 11.

Let's dive into why this is happening and what it could all mean. (thread)
interconnected.blog/lame-duck-deli…
1/ China Unicom/Mobile/Unicom HK are the only 3 co's on DoD's “Communist Chinese military companies” list trading on Wall Street, so using delisting to comply w/ Trump's EO is a one-time thing.
defense.gov/Newsroom/Relea…
2/ Damage to the telcos minimal: only ~2% of combined float traded on NYSE & almost all biz activities are inside China.

They've been trading in NYSE for many years, so used to need access to US capital to grow as companies, not any more, esp given growth of HK/SH/SZ exchanges.
3/ Why did Trump issue EO to accelerate delisting, when Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act (HFCAA) was poised to pass & force delisting anyway?

It's a great way to rack up more “Fuck China” points, burnish image as toughest US politician on China.
4/ Image helps w/ either a 2024 run or "kingmaker" role to GOP's new generation of ambitious, opportunistic China hawks, like Senators Hawley, Rubio, Cruz, Cotton.

Lame duck delisting also limits Biden adm's policy options, must look for new "surface area" to be tougher.
5/ One possible direction is EU, as signaled in this tweet on China-EU investment agreement by incoming NSA Jake Sullivan.

At least 2 co's on "Communist Chinese military companies” list are trading in Frankfurt. Will they be pressured to delist too?
6/ Lastly, we may finally see use of “Unreliable Entity List” from Ministry of Commerce to reciprocate/retaliate. Which US co will be added? My current bet: Cisco.

Pls read post for more context & analysis 👇
interconnected.blog/lame-duck-deli…

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More from @kevinsxu

5 Jan
The 2020 Octoverse Report from @github has a very neat section "Open source powers the global economy"

It's a map of the world w/ toggle from 2015->2020->2025 ->2030: recording & projecting where open source contribs have/will come from.

(Pls read on)
octoverse.github.com
In 2015, 🇺🇸was the lone bright region by a long shot. The rest of world was dim.

(Of course this, I assume, records contributions from that geography w/o info of the contributors' nationality.) Image
By 2020, 🇨🇳, 🇷🇺, 🇮🇳, 🇨🇦, 🇧🇷 have all gotten noticeable brighter. Image
Read 5 tweets
4 Dec 20
"Global by Nature (Part I): Developers"

First of a 4-part series that's been in my head for probably 4 years, on what Globalization 2.0 looks like and what kind of people, products, paradigms & opportunities will be “global by nature.”

Thread 👇👇
interconnected.blog/global-by-natu…
1/ Globalization 1.0 was all about trade. Globalization 2.0 is all about technology.

In G2.0 the most important people to understand is: developers--the builders and kingmakers of technology.

Developers is the single most important demographic that will shape G2.0
2/ My plain language working definition of "developers" is simply: *someone who uses digital technology to build things*

They have a global mindset due to two motivations: utilitarian and communal.
Read 9 tweets
9 Oct 20
"China’s Semiconductor Future: What Can $1.4 Trillion Buy?"

Enjoyed writing my 1st column on @thewirechina + working w/ @DavidBarboza2 to help simplify/demystify semiconductors & China's proposed 1.4T investment in that sector.

Some highlights...(thread)
thewirechina.com/2020/10/04/chi…
A semiconductor chip's life cycle is complex, though can be roughly broken down to 4 big stages:

- acquire raw material
- design chips
- marry the design to manufacturing capabilities
- produce at scale
Some stages can be accelerated w/ more 💰💰, i.e. raw material (China produce the most silicon of any country) & building huge chip fabs for mass production.

Others (e.g. chip design) require brain power, R&D, IP & long-term patience — things that money can’t buy.
Read 5 tweets
4 Sep 20
0/ "What is TikTok Worth to Whom and Why?"

NEW post explores this (possible) sale from strictly a biz angle, esp for MSFT/WMT & ORCL, along 5 dimensions:

-product synergy (yep I used "synergy")
-user/data
-tech
-brand
-people

Some nuggets...(thread)
interconnected.blog/what-is-tiktok…
1/ Product synergy exists w/ either Azure or Oracle Cloud. Running TikTok during hypergrowth w/o issues is legit accomplishment for a cloud, will help differentiate in a heated global cloud race.

E-commerce w/ Walmart is more longterm, could help differentiate Walmart+ later.
2/ User+data valuable #obvi. Data Density determines a lot of the value in a tech biz, *more* valuable IMHO than core AI tech in TikTok.

Easier to build AI engine if you have the data than the other way around. (Buyer may not get the tech anyways due to China's new regulation.)
Read 6 tweets

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