Thread by @TheDailyMao

I would caution folks not to overestimate the relative decline of the US / ascent of China

1/

https://twitter.com/martjacques/status/1347137399927828481

Instead of saying China has taken primacy over the US in 2020 - or even started that process - it's more accurate to say that 2020 marks the start of multipolarity's return to global politics

2/

https://twitter.com/martjacques/status/1347137400997339136

The US still has a plurality of the world's "critical bottleneck" technologies, supremacy in the maritime and orbital commons, financial centrality, and a global media nexus

3/

Now, it is true that China has surpassed the US is some important domains: the ability to agilely develop, scale, and execute domestic policy perhaps being the biggest one. But that doesn't mean that China can afford to rest easy

4/

Because of the US's command of the global financial/media/maritime/orbital commons, China will need to work doubly hard just to keep its access to those commons from being denied by an increasingly hostile US.

5/

What's more, though the gap is fast closing, the median Chinese citizen still has a lower quality of life than the median US citizen, which means China still has a lot of work to do just to validate its own development model

6/

None of this means that China is on the wrong path or that the US is destined to stay #1 forever. It means, though, that China's govt and citizens should not succumb to premature celebration, and instead should redouble their national efforts to winning the great contest.

/end