Trump backs down - on transition, on prosecuting MAGA rioters, on links to far right. Why? Because a felony was committed somewhere in the chain of command that led to the security failures at Capitol, and it will be traceable 1/ And everyone is resigning...
2/ Politically - in terms of mainstream politics - this is now a damage limitation exercise for the Trump family and the inner circle. He can pardon himself but not them. In terms of mass politics however...
3/ As I pointed out yesterday, fascists need Sorelian myths: the Storm/Kraken was a Sorelian myth and it fell apart between the SCOTUS judgement and 6 January... now they need a new Sorelian myth...
4/ Sorel said a myth in politics is not a fantasy: it's an immanent story of how the world works. "Trump will arrest the libs and unleash a coup" - was such a myth. Now there are two ways it will go... a) he was captured b) we were betrayed...
5/ From now on the far right narrative in the USA will focus on storming buildings, only with larger numbers. Georgia shows, even with gerrymandered districts, the demographic tide is turning... hence blackpill narratives rising after 6 Jan...
6/ The non-deluded far right of the GOP realise they have to regain some kind of constitutional solid ground to re-form the coalition, and that a third, Trumpist party is in the making...
7/ Trump is right now trying to avoid a **long** jail term for treason/sedition, hence the humble pie. He will repudiate it, saying he was forced into it, as soon as he is out of danger... but here's where the next phase opens up...
8/ European govts were seriously having to consider if this was a coup attempt, not a charade. They won't stop asking that now it's over. Even if US intel won't investigate properly, foreign agencies will, because they are currently sharing secrets with a traitor...
9/ The salient questions are: did the Proud Boys leader order the march (there's evidence on camera); and who did he talk to before he gave the order; and who designed the DC policing plan/countermanded NG deployment?
10/10 Never forget, while we in the press try to find this stuff out, several security agencies are likely to know the complete answer, not all of them in the USA.
11/ Finally, a Trumpist 3rd Party will be the American fascist party, just as the ex-Freikorps elites grafted their networks onto Hitler's DAP/NSDAP once demobilised, and brought their money/elite networks and newspapers... that's the parallel.
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A short thread on the Nazi/Trump parallels, drawn from research from How To Stop Fascism (see bio): 1/ The modern far right grows from the same ideological rootstock as Hitler/Mussolini - Nietzsche, Sorel, Chamberlain - it's the same crap... but...
2/ In the immediate aftermath of WW1 the German far right was splintered, with the biggest action - not words - being perpetrated by the Freikorps, first against the Spartakist uprising (exactly 102 years ago), then Baltic States...
3/ ... then the Bavarian Soviet. So when Hitlers NSDAP took off it was as a magnet for all paramilitaries, militias, aristocratic fascists etc... but there still remained Trump-style authoritarian conservatives, some even "populist"...
We are all Antifa now! One day on from the Capitol coup... 1/ This will create a Sorelian myth for the US right: "next time with a million people".... medium.com/mosquito-ridge…
2/ This was a core of fascists, some dedicated MAGA people, but the militias stayed away in numbers... the danger is not over because only now do the MAGA millions realise they lost control of both houses, Pence, the GOP right etc... medium.com/mosquito-ridge…
3/ The most important thing was not that they seized the Capitol but that Trump incited them and the cops manifestly failed... that pattern will define the next 4 years of an anti-Biden insurgency... medium.com/mosquito-ridge…
The fascist danger is not over: a thread. 1/ What's important is that Trump incited the attack; the administration did not stop him; the chain of command protecting the legislature evaporated; and he is still in office inciting objections to the result... medium.com/mosquito-ridge…
2/ The Proud Boys led this, but the militias were largely absent. 45% of Republican voters *support* the attack on Congress. This is what Fox, Parler and the talk radio shows have created: a mass fascist network prepared to overthrow the US Constitution...
3/ There are similar moments in the 1930s... Hitler's Schluss Jetzt slogan in 1932 - "end the republic now" - and Paris 6 Feb 1934, when a fascist mob stormed parliament...
THREAD on the DC coup: 1/ It's a few thousand people, inadequately policed, but they pose a danger to life and limb for US lawmakers and currently control the Capitol...
2/ It will require an armed sweep and a security sweep of the building to get it under control. That Pelosi and Schumer called in the Virginia NG means DC and - worse - the DoD are not co-ordinating....
3/ Forget the theatre. Foreign governments will be asking: is there an unbroken chain of command? Everyone in security knows how fragile states are. The DC police, DoD have hours - not many - to get this under control. Trump is publicly absent, having incited it...
By this morning it was clear there is an urgent case for a total lockdown, total schools closure and a new furlough scheme. What did the Tories do? Dithered. What did their outriders do? Demeaned the deaths over-60s with "conditions". By tonight - no action. Remember that...
... the exponential function does not wait for political kite flying, or for radio hosts to stop spewing lies, or for Xmas to be over... it doubles over time. Everything coming off the wards says it's horrendous now. HM Govt job is to take action...
Much as I want Wed 29/12 to be a debate about the Brexit deal it is totally secondary to saving lives. I urge MPs to stage a rebellion tomorrow unless the govt shuts all schools and imposes a new, urgent lockdown...
In a functioning state today should be decision day on harder lockdowns and school closures. Both the figures and the anecdotal evidence from medics saying SE England hospitals reaching capacity and staff reaching limits of resilience BEFORE the effects of Xmas relaxation seen 1/
2/ But this is a sociopathic government: no empathy, self-aggrandising claims, continual lying and manipulation, narcissism... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
3/ The decisions need to be taken sooner, not later. Schools and families need to plan; if the Nightingale shut-down has a logic, it needs to be explained. And there's no urgency in the public health comms...