Indoor dining restrictions, weather seasonal impact. Leisure & Hospitality Sector, a colossal 498k jobs were lost in December, 372k of those L&H layoffs were at restaurants and bars. Fiscal relief is NOT focused here, should be.
In the first week of '21, Wall St. strategists already have to revise their growth forecasts and average missed on jobs numbers. Reprint the 500-page new yr outlook, a good kindling recourse for the fireplace.
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Why does @stoolpresidente have more focus here than Congress? House and Senate are shotgunning billions of dollars around the planet. More targeted U.S. focused assistance to those in need is in order, asap.
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Construction +51k, manufacturing +38k. As US sheds Leisure & Hospitality jobs (lower-paying) vs. adds construction and manufacturing (higher paying), AHE rose 0.8% MoM faster than expected.* Infrastructure focused fiscal policy needed, will impact wages.
*Average hourly earnings
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One of the problems with sell side banks is a classic silo-ization. Splintered fiefdoms litter the field often times with little top down coordination between the views of equity analysts, economists, high yield bond traders, fixed income strategists, rates trading etc.
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Each group is a power center with their own p/l, their own Senior MD leadership - with the highly profitable silos carrying the most weight, influence over high level decision making across the firm. In periods of significant market dislocations
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Look at the above two tweets and ask yourself one question. Where on earth would the performance data be if we did NOT re-lockdown and had a vaccine? Then think about the next 12 months.
BIG Problem Looking forward: At 61.4%, the lowest labor force participation, going back to 1976.
Lots of American families on the outside, looking in. These people MUST be brought back into the labor force soon. Every day that does by, re-entry is harder. Colossal political demand for UBI* / long term unemployment benefits, Colossal election impact.
*Universal basic income
Sustainability??? The colossal political impact here, speaks to people in the streets, NOT at work, not participating. Solutions needed asap.
We are talking about a borderline scam here? It’s a mathematical fact - this beast is NOT long for this world. Sustainability is the question. A high stakes game of musical chairs, DON’T get caught holding the bag.
Happy Birthday
% Return Since 2010
QQQ: +520.7%
TQQQ: +6,931.6%
Wait… what?
% Return Since the Feb 2020 Top
QQQ: +11.3%
TQQQ: -5.1%
Since Sept 2
QQQ: -12%
TQQQ: -37%
Wait… what??? An $8B problem - Leverage, 3 things you need to know: