As expected, the end of Trump’s presidency confirmed all of the worst things Republican opponents said about him in 2016, but it also confirmed what everyone should have known all the time, which is that he was all the time a “paper tiger”, both totally unprepared for his new
and without the intelligence or mental discipline needed for successful improvisation. Far from “playing 4D-chess” he was was worse like someone who manages to lose at tic-tac-toe.
Both those who worried about Trump seizing power by some kind of coup d’etat and those who hoped
for such a thing we’re equally naive - clearly they either never understood Trump or the American political system, and usually both. Instead of a coup we got what everybody should have expected - and self-destructive uncontrollable temper tantrum and a farce (although one
resulting in several deaths) performed by some of the most grotesque character ever to appear on any stage.

But only if you look at these events dispassionately, setting aside ideology and all emotions, and think only in terns if strategy and tactics,
the full extent of Trump’s imbecility becomes clear. In fact, in spite of his inept handling of the epidemic (which is easier to criticize than to suggest a convincing alternative) his prospects going into the election were far from hopeless. All he needed was to match the
performance of the GOP and he probably would have just won. For that purpose, however, he would have needed to cease to be Trump just for a few weeks, maybe even less but we know he can barely do so for one day. But even granting that he could not have helped that, the total
unforced disaster he brought not just of the GOP but on himself puts him really in a class of his own in political history.
In fact, just before the election he got a politically very valuable gift - the Hunter Biden scandal. How much the suppression of the news about by the
social media influenced the outcome of the election is hard to tell , but there is no doubt that it had some influence. And it also would have provided Trump with a powerful political weapon after his electoral loss, if he did not chose to abandon it and pursue his totally
hopeless, in fact insane, strategy of trying to reverse the outcome by claiming electoral fraud. In fact, whether there was evidence or not of any fraud (certainly there was none in the sort of scale that could have decided the result) is much less important than the fact that
the fraud strategy inevitable lead him to accusing his own party (especially in Georgia but not only) of deliberately throwing the election to the Democrats. The idiocy of this cannot be overstated. From the moment Trump decided on this course, he was doomed. The fact that he
managed to recruit to his cause some unbelievable nut cases, just made the whole thing more grotesque, but the best legal minds and public relations grandmasters would not have achieved a better result that Lin Wood and Ruddy Giuliani.
But Trump could easily have avoided this debacle, since he had an excellently exploitable excuse for his defeat. He could have admitted that he lost the election in terms of number but insist that it only happened because of the suppression of the Biden China and Ukraine
scandals. He could have announced that he would not rest until the truth about this is fully uncovered. Had he campaigned on that issue in Georgia and not on accusing the local Republicans of treasons and having his crazies threaten them with “execution”, the GOP would have won
at least one, and quite likely both seats. That would have left Trump without Presidency but an undisputed Opposition Leader.
Controlling the Senate, he would have been in a position to turn Huntergate into Biden’s Russiagate. By not letting the Republicans drop this issue, he
would ensure that the new administration would be continually as harassed as his was. Quite possibly, a Muller-like special Counsel would have been appointed and then who knows what else could have been uncovered.
Even if Trump did not run himself in 2024, he would almost
almost certainly have been the kingmaker - a role that he still might be able to play but with much greater difficulty (and probably will fail).
And most of all, the Hunter scandal is probably dead for a long time now - or maybe only future historians will uncover what really
happened. One can find a lot of irony in this ending of the Trump drama - much more fitting a okay by Ben Jonson than by Shakespeare.

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More from @akoz33

9 Jan
There is an enormous difference between deplatforming Trump and deplatforming the President of the United States. It’s really amazing that intelligent people don’t seem to understand it. The first would be nothing special, a decision by a private company of the kind that has
been done lots of times. The second (especially when it’s done by the companies that now enjoy virtual monopoly on public information) is an intolerable outrage and a danger to free freedom. It’s also curious that exactly the same people who attack Orban for monopolizing public
debate in Hungary by having all the main media sources controlled by his cronies (private companies!) find no problem when the same thing is done in the USA. By all means, impeach Trump but as long he is President, he has to be treated as such. Dorsey and Zuckerberg who are the
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7 Jan
@ELuttwak
I have written a number of times before about the very support for Trump among the extreme Japanese nationalists (which include some prominent people, for example Naoki Momota, the former head of NHK & former Abe advisor, Kaori Arimoto).
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But the weirdest thing is that they are both very
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Read 7 tweets
7 Jan
I repeat again that more important than impeaching Trump (although I fully support doing so) is reducing the power of the Presidency. Trump has shown how dangerous this can be these days. However, rather than weaken the executive, some power should by transferred from the
President to the Cabinet. The most important thing however, is eliminating the most obvious and dangerous aspect displayed by the Trump presidency - government by “acting secretaries” rather than Senate approved cabinet officials. There should be only a limited period during
which someone could serve as acting secretary, after which he would have to be submitted for approval to the Senate. If such a person war rejected, he could no longer serve in this capacity. There are other changes of this kind that are needed - of course they would have to be
Read 4 tweets
7 Jan
Jan Matejko’s “Jan Žižka before the battle of Kutna Hora”.
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Read 4 tweets
7 Jan
It was not an insurrection (although weapons were wielded, explosives were found and one person was shot dead), but it does satisfy Edward Luttwak’s own definition of an attempted coup (albeit an exceptionally incompetent one). Let’s recall the definition, which is on page 11
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Well, to me this seems to fit particularly that we now know that Trump attempted to stop the
Read 6 tweets
6 Jan
I am not quite sure but I think it was it was State of Virginia National Guards that had to be brought to restore order in the Capitol because the Pentagon (not the Joint Chiefs) refused permission of the National Guard to be used. (in Washington DC the National Guard is under
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