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İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي Profile picture
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8 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
So here's a question. Given the serious fallout between Trump and Pence, if Trump expects to resign and have Pence pardon him, will Pence do it?
Here's a couple relevant points. Those close to Pence have described him as "very angry", and also describe Trump as being horribly abusive towards Pence lately. There's even speculation that Trump's pseud-concession was under threat of 25th amendment
But also I wonder if Pence actually expects to have a future in GOP politics and doesn't want to burn it for Trump
Of course there's the fact that MAGA folks now absolutely revile Pence and consider him a traitor. Dunno how Pence would look at that - placate them? Or realize he won't ever have them as his base?

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More from @iyad_elbaghdadi

İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي Profile picture
10 Jan
The fact that so many people interpret platform moderation as "censorship" shows just how poorly the average person understands the fundamentals of free speech and the public sphere. So many people seem to have an 8th grader's understanding at best.
Forget the government vs private platform distinction; even with the legal right to free speech, "free" does not mean "absolute". Even in the US, free speech stops at a constitutionally drawn line, "imminent lawless action".
And that's a government. Platforms like Twitter are governed by another paradigm, that of the public sphere. A healthy public sphere is meritocratic, facts-based, inclusive, competitive, and representative. We don't have to be at 100% health but we can try for 51%.
Read 5 tweets
İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي Profile picture
9 Jan
Here's the thing. Sunlight isn't always the best disinfectant, sometimes it just makes the weeds grow thicker and stronger by giving them legitimacy and a platform
Good ideas don't always drive out bad ideas, otherwise we wouldn't be here 70+ years after the fall of the Third Reich still arguing against literal Nazis. Some bad ideas live as zombies because people aren't always rational
And don't @ me, I lost my country and livelihood and nearly lost my life for the sake of my right to free speech, I won't be lectured by those who never as much skipped lunch for their right to free speech
Read 4 tweets
İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي Profile picture
9 Jan
Someone should do a PhD about people from minority backgrounds who joint white supremacist groups because they have such a deep complex of identity that they embrace and desire white privilege
Imagine feeling so fundamentally inferior to white people (and accepting that at normal and proper) that you seek the approval of white supremacists by becoming a literal white supremacist
And for the record, these specimens are fully embraced by (smart) white supremacists. Nothing like a member of the group you hate validating your worldview. You also get to say "hey we're not racists, coz this guy is with us"
Read 4 tweets
İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي Profile picture
9 Jan
Summary (of two decades):
1. We have more agency than some people think. Ultimately nobody can deradicalize you but yourself
2. We do not have as much agency as some others think. Lots of contextual factors beyond our control influence our choices, often without us noticing
Two failed paradigms that if not abandoned, will make this worse:
1. It's solely and singularly your choice and nobody and nothing influences that choice, so no point looking at contextual factors
2. It's entirely down to contextual factors, you have no agency and no choice
Human action is more complex than that, and radicalization is human behavior. If we try to understand it with a flawed model of what human beings are and what makes them tick, we'll be making this much worse. The stakes are very high.
Read 5 tweets
İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي Profile picture
9 Jan
I was radicalized 17 years ago, in the wake of the Iraq War. But I was never recruited and never became an active member of any group. The reason? The online forums which I frequented were taken offline. If they weren't, my life would have taken a very different path.
Radicalization thrives in communities of identity and grievance. You surround yourself with people who echo back to you what you already desperately want to believe. But you also adjust your own beliefs in order to "fit in". You compete in showing your allegiance and purity.
The actual truth doesn't matter, what matters is the group's truth, which serves as a marker of belonging. You join the group by believing its truths and disbelieving the truths of the out-group. The harder you do that the more you "belong".
Read 4 tweets
İyad el-Baghdadi | إياد البغدادي Profile picture
8 Jan
So I have these four more questions:
1. Are Americans still too shocked to be angry? I mean, is the actual anger over what happened yet to come?
2. Is Ted Cruz's political career over?
3. Do Americans have Trump PTSD?
4. Do you like my new profile picture?
Ok a few more since you're being generous with answers
5. Should I have ice cream tomorrow
6. What's the future like for Jared and Ivanka
7. Will the people who bailed on Trump only in the last few days be able to rehabilitate their image
8. How's Kamala Harris on foreign policy
Ok one more before I go to sleep:
9. How do you think the intense rage so many Americans feel at Trump will manifest itself?
Read 4 tweets

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