Thread by @Noahpinion

1/I decided to write about America's Cold Civil War, and when it might end, and what might be done to hasten its end.

I'm biased, and I'm not an expert on this sort of thing, so take my thoughts with a grain of salt!

noahpinion.substack.com/p/thoughts-on-…

2/With 45% of Republicans supporting the coup attempt of 1/6 and 42% blaming Biden, it's clear that the Cold Civil War is far from over.

3/First, let's talk about why the Cold Civil War is continuing.

The main reason is that the Right feels an intense sense of threat.

Some of that threat is demographic.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.11…

4/And some of that threat is partisan.

claremontreviewofbooks.com/digital/the-fl…

5/These fears are particularly bad right now, but it's important to remember that they're not a new kind of thing.

Once upon a time, Protestants feared that Catholics would genocide them...

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/937023826868584449

6/And fear of vote-importing is as old as America.

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1082042347888685056

7/But this time is different, because now the fears are connected to Black-White relations, which is by far the most enduringly divisive and bitter issue in American politics -- the only thing we've ever fought a civil war over.

8/Republicans' sense of overwhelming threat comes from the idea that Hispanic and Asian immigrants, and their children, will result in a permanent demographic minority that will result in a huge fall in social status for White people and a victory for progressive policies.

9/The Right's overwhelming sense of threat ALSO comes from the fear that they've lost all cultural power in America. They fear that they've lost the corporations, the universities, the media, the government, the schools...everything.

10/For a while, the Right had lost cultural power but retained POLITICAL power, thanks to the Senate and the Electoral College, which allow minority rule up to a point.

But now, with Biden's victory and Dems' control of the Senate, even that is over.

11/Of course, right-wing media has fanned the flames of this threatened feeling, for clicks and views and ad dollars. As a result, the Right has whipped itself into an absolute frenzy of terrified rage.

https://twitter.com/JesseKellyDC/status/1345787665887629312

12/Now here's the biggest problem:

The Right thinks it has one remaining advantage.

Gun ownership.

13/The idea of "we've got the guns" -- the fantasy of an armed Right versus a loud but utterly disarmed Left -- naturally encourages the Right toward greater acts of violence, since they feel that's the one area where they still have the upper hand.

14/This fantasy of an apocalyptic race war is laid out in The Turner Diaries.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Turne…

15/Of course, this is a complete fantasy.

The reality is that the U.S. Military would kick the ever-living crap out of any insurgency, if the security forces didn't handle it first.

16/But the fantasy and the fallacy of "we've got the guns" still pushes the Right toward extremism and violence.

And this is very dangerous. It probably won't lead to full-blown civil war, but could lead to a decade of terrorism and coup attempts.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/will-the-us-…

17/One way the Left can tamp down this bloody fantasy is to protest with their own guns.

Many liberals already own guns. But the Right doesn't realize it unless they protest.

reuters.com/article/us-glo…

18/In fact, protesting with guns in red and purple states -- Ohio, Michigan, etc. -- might hasten the progress of gun control laws, as it did in California in the 1960s.

history.com/news/black-pan…

19/The second change the Left needs is psychological. They have to realize that they're not the rebels anymore. It's not the 1970s. They're the institution, and they need to punish the rebels who try to overthrow the country.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/japanese-les…

20/So what forces might eventually end the Cold Civil War?

One is racial depolarization. The GOP made inroads with nonwhite voters in 2020; if they can extend those gains, the fear of demographic "drowning" will fade.

politico.com/news/magazine/…

21/As for the GOP, they need more leaders like @SenTomCotton to crack down on the coup-ists, with a racially and ideologically neutral law-and-order stance.

cotton.senate.gov/news/press-rel…

22/Finally, there's the hope that rightist extremists might simply become exhausted, as leftist extremists did in the 1970s.

amazon.com/Days-Rage-Unde…

23/@Peter_Turchin predicts a peak of unrest sometime in the early 2020s. Dunno if I buy that, but it would be better than another civil war, by a long shot!

https://twitter.com/Peter_Turchin/status/1302067228003700743

24/Anyway, the Cold Civil War will go on for years, and will continue to weaken America as long as it continues.

It will end when both the Right and the Left realize and accept that America is a stable multiracial democracy.

(end)

noahpinion.substack.com/p/thoughts-on-…

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