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Lewis Goodall Profile picture
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8 Jan, 8 tweets, 3 min read
Four graphs below show the total number of Covid patients in hospital in each of the four nations

England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

April peak: 18974
Now: 28246

Covid patient numbers 49% higher than April peak
Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Better somewhat picture here but curve is rising

April peak: 1520 Covid patients in hospital
Now: 1467

3.5% down on previous peak but as I say, rising sharply
Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Much worse picture in Wales compared to April

April peak: 919
Now: 1940

Covid patient numbers up 111% compared to peak
Northern Ireland

April peak: 354
Now: 599

Covid patient numbers up 69% compared to peak

But numbers coming down slightly
Don't let anyone tell you there isn't a problem with hospital overcrowding. It's real and generally getting worse.
Problem is we may be facing a double whammy, not only are there more people in hospital than April but the policy to deal with it (lockdown) might be proving less effective

School data I tweeted earlier showed clear trend to more kids in school...
TfL provided me with this data earlier. Compares tube use in the first week of the first lockdown in March to equivalent days this week.

First Thursday March lockdown= 0.49 million journeys
First Thursday January lockdown= 1.19 million journeys
In the light of the new hospital data, questions about when and how the government acted on the new variant transmissibility data, as raised in the thread below, feel bigger by the day

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More from @lewis_goodall

Lewis Goodall Profile picture
10 Jan
More post-Brexit discontent at the border(s). Stephen Phipson, CEO @MakeUK_: “There are customs experts with 30 yrs’ experience who are baffled by what the new regulations mean, let alone small/medium sized biz who have never had to deal with the kind of paperwork required.”
Continued: “the greater fear is that for many it will proved too much and they will simply choose not to export to the EU.”

It’s in Northern Ireland where some of the effects are being felt most acutely, with some UK businesses even suspending sending goods to NI (and the EU).
Stephen Kelly, Chief Exec of Manufacturing NI: “The reason why the UK&EU originally agreed that there would be an implementation period of 11 months was so that people could get their heads around what was needed and assure their biz was compliant. But we didn’t even have that.”
Read 5 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
10 Jan
Chris Whitty, writing in The Sunday Times says “The NHS is facing the most dangerous situation anyone can remember.” Says the service risks being overwhelmed in a fortnight and “Hospitals won’t have room to take redirected emergency cases.“
Whitty continues: “Staff patient ratios, which are already stretched, will become unacceptable even in places like intensive care. There will be avoidable deaths.”
As striking as the piece is, can’t help feeling might be more effective if Whitty and Vallance were also touring the TV studios this morning to project the message. Outside the confines of the briefings, we’ve barely seen either in interviews for months and months.
Read 5 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
8 Jan
Hearing from more and more heads of soaring numbers of kids being dropped off for school. One primary in London that went from 12 kids in March lockdown to 56 now. A secondary in West Yorkshire that went from 30 in March to 150+ now.
Combination of things driving it. Employers people less flexible. Savings depleted so less capacity for parents to miss work. More citing mental health issues for kids and parents which would classify as vulnerable.
In many cases though, teachers tell me, vulnerable kids are not the ones making up the numbers- many are still off and difficult to reach which is a huge worry.
Read 15 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
8 Jan
“America is and must always be a nation of law and order”
Trump effectively concedes- says he’s now committed to the “peaceful transfer of power”

Does not retract his claims of election fraud- merely that this is now a time for “healing”

Possible threats of legal action/impeachment have him spooked
Says being president “has been the honour of my life” (notable use of the past tense)

But tells his supporters “our journey is only just beginning”
Read 5 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
7 Jan
Earlier when asked about why the govt didn't act earlier the PM said “I think we were told about the new variant and the way it was taking off on 18th December and we went into T4 across the vast bulk of the country pretty much in the next 24 hours.”

This isn't entirely correct.
The new variant was identified in early December after genome data was paired with a curiosity that the rates of infection in Kent were not falling despite national restrictions and then T3. Image
So there was indicative sense that the variant may be playing its part as early as that and perhaps sport greater transmissibility.

On December 14th Matt Hancock informed the Commons, saying the new variant was in at least 60 local authorities already.

bbc.co.uk/news/health-55…
Read 13 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
7 Jan
Speaker Pelosi says that if Pence and the Cabinet doesn’t move on the 25th amendment she’s willing to move to impeach.

“my friends we are in a very difficult place as a country as long as Donald Trump remains in The White House.”
Pelosi says she hopes to get an answer from Pence on the 25th today
Pelosi: "By inciting sedition as he did yesterday, he [Trump] must be removed from office."
Read 6 tweets

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