1/6

I hope Joe Biden and his administration are serious about this stimulus spending, especially if it is directed to much-needed infrastructure. For those who are worried about where the money needed to fund the spending will "come from", the fact is...

ft.com/content/b69a5d…
2/6

that any investment or disbursement that results in unemployed people having productive jobs is ultimately self-liquidating because the increase in the total value of goods and services produced by the economy will exceed the increase in the debt.

carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancial…
3/6

There can of course be problems with inefficient spending and "unfair" transfers, but these are really political issues that can be addressed through the tax system, not economic issues. The point is that if there are Americans who want to work but cannot find...
4/6

jobs, their inability to work is a greater economic cost to the country than is debt (and that ignores the social and political costs). Getting them jobs does not worsen the debt burden. It improves it.

In the end the idea that all government spending is wasteful is...
5/6

as idiotic – and as ignorant of American history – as the idea that government spending is always costless. It depends on the underlying conditions. Conditions that justify more government support of the economy have been in place for at least a decade, but these...
6/6

were seriously exacerbated by the Covid-19 crisis. Even without the need to compete with China there has probably been no time since the 1930s more obvious than today in which government spending to support jobs and build and repair infrastructure is more easily justified.

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More from @michaelxpettis

11 Jan
1/11

An article worth thinking about: “As changes to the world structure accelerate, China’s rule is in sharp contrast with the turmoil in the West,” says Beijing.

I agree, but I draw a different conclusion. The world is certainly currently going...

scmp.com/news/china/pol…
2/11

through "a period of turbulent change", in Beijing’s words, and great structural adjustments, but usually when that happens, what matters in the long run is not how stable a system seems but rather how successfully political, economic and social institutions adjust to...
3/11

the new conditions. In the past these adjustments have almost always been messy, chaotic, and disheartening to most, but ultimately they were necessary even if we were unable to judge them so at the time.

I would argue that the world today is undergoing both a reversal...
Read 11 tweets
11 Jan
1/4

China's CPI inflation was 0.2% for the past 12 months, substantially higher than the -0.5% registered in November but lower than the roughly 2% of the past five years. I believe demand deposits yield 0.35% and 1-year and 2-year deposits yield 1.5%...

xinhuanet.com/english/2021-0…
2/4

and 2.1%, which means that for now households are getting a real return on their savings, but they won't be if CPI prices continue to rise as fast as they have in the past several weeks. The real return on savings matters a lot to the distribution of income and to the...
3/4

share households retain of GDP, which in turn matters to rebalancing.

On the other hand PPI prices are still in year-on-year deflation. PPI prices declined by 0.4% in December, about half of what was expected, compared to a 1.5% decline year on year in November.
Read 4 tweets
9 Jan
1/10

The latest IMF report on China was released yesterday and provides a lot of good information and intelligent insight on the Chinese economy. The IMF’s measure of China’s adjusted fiscal deficit (including estimated off-budget investment...

imf.org/en/Publication…
2/10

spending) is projected to rise to 18.2% of GDP in 2020 from 12.6% in 2019. The authors correctly note the worrying surge in debt and warn that Beijing must continue to try to contain financial stability risks, but I notice that they are projecting average GDP...
3/10

growth of just over 6% between 2012 and 2025, including a downward revision of their 2021 forecast from 8.2% to 7.9% (which I still think is a little high).

As I’ve long argued, it will be impossible for China both to control the surge in debt and to achieve growth...
Read 10 tweets
7 Jan
1/5

I disagree. I don't think American democracy was trashed. It was certainly bruised, but democracy is a messy process, and it is especially messy during times when political institutions must adjust to great underlying changes. But that is also its great strength: however...
2/5

messily they do so, democracies adjust.

One thing we can say about recent events in Washington is that they should make the urgency of adjustment all the more clear to Republican and Democrat policymakers. The direction should also be pretty clear. Throughout American...
3/5

history a long period of soaring wealth for the elite and economic stagnation for the masses has always led first to deep resentment, and then to political chaos and conflict which at times even seemed a challenge to democracy, but always ended up strengthening it.
Read 5 tweets
7 Jan
1/5

Five provincial government have raised RMB 51 billion in the past month to recapitalize 29 banks and rural credit cooperatives. We are going to see a lot more of this in 2021 as the regulators try to repair a very insolvent banking system, but it...

caixinglobal.com/2021-01-07/pro…
2/5

is important to understand that this does not "resolve" the problem so much as shift it onto the balance sheets of local and provincial governments, which at some point will also have to be repaired. Already something like 60% of their debt-servicing costs cannot be...
3/5

repaid out of an increase in real economic capacity and so must be rolled over.

This is an old story. Every time the regulators resolve excess debt in one sector of the economy, they do so by exacerbating excess debt in another. This is inevitable given the country's...
Read 5 tweets
7 Jan
1/5

This article says that online education companies have invested $15 billion last year, but only had revenue of a few billion dollars and no profits. They cite an analyst as saying "If you don’t raise money when everyone else is, you’ll fall behind".

caixinglobal.com/2021-01-07/in-…
2/5

I think we've seen this movie before. Three years ago one of my former students told me he was leaving a very successful career in PE to start an online education company. There were so many PE firms in China trying to invest so much money, he told me, that there was a...
3/5

shortage of good companies to buy, and any company with a good Powerpoint presentation could raise huge amounts of PE money. It was better to sell companies than buy them, he concluded, and suggested that online learning would be a very hot business for PE financing.
Read 5 tweets

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