I am very conflicted by this announcement. Taiwan is an important unofficial partner, a major economic and security partner, making robust engagement a vital US national interest.
@usasiapacific and #AIT team has done incredible work strengthening US-Taiwan engagement over the last four years, and has much to show for its efforts.
They accomplished so much, despite the lack of diplomatic recognition and restrictions on engagement. BZ
Arbitrary restrictions on engagement harm US interests and belittle our valued Taiwan friends, at no gain to either, and potential harm to both.
China should not be the deciding factor in determining interests and achieving US objectives. China does not take foreign preferences into account when it makes policy that affects US interests. Neither China, nor the US can or should veto the other's policies.
I think removing arbitrary restrictions is the right approach, but this is not the right time.
A blanket statement such as this, abrogating all of the guidance in place for years, without articulating what framework will replace it simply amplifies perceived chaos in DC.
I don't know if the decision took into account the potential negative impacts on Taiwan, whether @iingwen was consulted, and whether Taiwan is prepared for the pressure and retaliation that Beijing might impose on them. DC will have to back Taipei up to maintain credibility.
It would have been more meaningful to have comprehensively reformed US engagement policy to reflect US values and interests, then implement those practices for years, establishing new, positive norms benefitting both the US and Taiwan, while maintaining X-strait stability.
It is a good thing badly done, four years too late.
A move that can be reversed with little effort in a few weeks, incentivizing Beijing to apply pressure and coercion on the new Administration, effectively inviting them to interfere in US policy-making.
The Biden Administration has the opportunity to re-look Taiwan engagement practices and should do that to suit US interests.
The Biden Admin must prioritize maximizing the benefits that US-Taiwan relations can bring, not minimizing the objections and threats that China makes.
Is China socializing its people to prepare for war?
H/T @niubi for highlighting a recent meeting of the Central POLITICAL and LEGAL AFFAIRS Commission which uses the term “战” – "war" - 16 times (and Xi Jiniping 18 times).
CCP political discourse constantly uses the “war” metaphor, partly because of its historic and cultural perspective that all relationships are a form of struggle.
/2
China’s gov’t regularly declares war on social challenges – war, pollution, food waste, drugs, etc.
(It’s not just China – remember Johnson’s war on poverty in 1964).
/3
Excellent piece by my friend @WonkVJ explaining why Biden is going to invariably disappoint us on China policy, bringing the US back to an era of “balancing cooperation with competition.”
Take that tack, and the US will end up without cooperation, even less competitive.
Beijing offers a grand historical bargain on climate change. This is the equivalent of selling the Brooklyn Bridge, but a Democratic president finds it irresistible. The grand bargain never requires Beijing to do anything.
Peking University's @SCS_PI observed two U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon aircraft, one P-3C and a U.S. Air Force RC-135W Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft was operating to the South of Taiwan in the Bashi Channel.
One P-3C? Whose is it? It's probably Taiwan's.
A thread. /1
The tweet did not mention that they were accompanied by a @usairforce KC-135R refuelling aircraft, enabling the planes to stay on station longer than if they could only rely on their internal fuel tanks.
Yes, USAF can refuel a @usnavy P-8! Air-Sea Battle lives!
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My friend and colleague @RSIS_NTU here in Singapore, @ollisuorsa, wryly asked in a re-tweet, “Is there something ‘interesting’ moving underwater?
/3
“We [London] were very surprised and disappointed that you [HK] decided to publish your unsolicited proposal within two days of our receiving it.”
“We recognise the scale of the opportunity in China and value greatly our relationships there. However, we do not believe HKEX provides us with the best long-term positioning in Asia or the best listing / trading platform for China. “
Lots to unpack here. Looks like Taiwan is investing in not only replacing its amortized M-60 tanks, also buying large numbers of munitions, too. reuters.com/article/us-usa…
TOWs, Javelins and Stingers (Man-portable?) compliment the new tanks, and are already in inventory. New missiles are a layered defense that will challenge any invading force, consistent with Taiwan’s asymmetric Overall Defense Concept. Good call @iingwen !
China will undoubtedly react when the actual Congressional Notification comes out, and possibly more stridently than they have in the past. The overall deterioration of the bilateral relationship virtually guarantees it. Beijing’s turn to nationalism doesn’t bode well either.