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Lots to unpack here. Looks like Taiwan is investing in not only replacing its amortized M-60 tanks, also buying large numbers of munitions, too. reuters.com/article/us-usa…
TOWs, Javelins and Stingers (Man-portable?) compliment the new tanks, and are already in inventory. New missiles are a layered defense that will challenge any invading force, consistent with Taiwan’s asymmetric Overall Defense Concept. Good call @iingwen !
China will undoubtedly react when the actual Congressional Notification comes out, and possibly more stridently than they have in the past. The overall deterioration of the bilateral relationship virtually guarantees it. Beijing’s turn to nationalism doesn’t bode well either.
@generaldynamics is probably going to be a test case for what it means to be on China’s “undesirables” list announced last week by MOFCOM. China has threatened to sanction companies in the past, but never really carried through.
@generaldynamics owns Gulfstream business jets @GulfstreamAero, which has about 40% of the market in China. I expect the PRC gov’t will retaliate against their business, stop companies from placing new orders, and possibly take action against their offices and expats as well.
This sale is not a surprise, so hopefully @generaldynamics has a resiliency plan in place. They can emphasise that US gov’t is the customer for the tanks under the Foreign Military Sales program. USG picks the vendor and transfers the weapons to Taiwan. It is not a direct sale.
That line won’t help much. The business community including @USChamber and @USChinaBusiness should watch closely, publicise what unfolds and ensure Chinese government is responsible for its actions.
China implementing unilateral sanctions against companies and practicing economic coercion is increasingly the norm, with parallels in the US approach to Iran (and Mexico). Context matters, and makes it easier for China to justify their actions.
Buckle up.
