Remember this?
It was made when the Dow Jones was here:
The market did correct a whopping 20%....more than a year later. The bottom point of that 20% correction was...uhm, no, let's see it:
Which then promptly reversed to hit levels of rational insanity in another two years
Which then corrected massively, I tell you. Massively. That dot com bust was a slap on the face of everyone that thought we were not irrationally exuberant.
The original statement in this thread was made by Alan Greenspan, Then Governor of the US Federal Reserve.

There is absolutely no point in predicting an end date to madness.

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More from @deepakshenoy

15 Dec 20
Does Franklin get away clean after this episode? My thoughts have been with unit holders, but I think we need to speak of a SERIOUS fine for Franklin Mutual Fund for bringing this episode to this shameful end. (Thread)
First, SEBI needs to fine Franklin an entire two years of management fees on the shuttered funds. The money needs to be added back as cash to the funds immediately. This should be upwards of 300 cr. and a decent coverage for defaults if any.
Second, SEBI should appoint a different mutual fund - perhaps one that has much better debt experience, and I'm looking at you, IDFC MF, which should take over the closing down operation of all the shuttered funds immediately. Pay the appointed fund a fee from the Franklin fine.
Read 10 tweets
9 Dec 20
Folks - if you can't pay back your EMI, please create a new bank account at a different bank (Kotak, IDFC and a few others allow it to created online) - idfcfirstbank.com/content/idfcse…

Also notify your lender that you are unable to pay your EMI and to not auto-debit.
Also notify your current bank to not honour any auto-debit from the lender as the loan is under negotiation, and thus to not charge you auto-debit fees.

Then keep zero balance in that account. Get your lender to negotiate, reduce rates, and give you more time.
Read 7 tweets
17 Nov 20
Laxmi Vilas Bank placed under moratorium. This means they're going to mount a rescue of some sort. It's a small bank but we expect
a) Tier 1/2 bond writedowns
b) Equity capital will need to be infused for a rescue
They have Tier 1 + 2 capital of 148 cr. (march 2020) which would have dwindled further. Even a full write down of Tier 2 bonds - roughly 270 cr. - will not be enough. The bank needs 1300 cr. of capital, at the very least.
Ok, update: RBI does a full merger with DBS Bank India. rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/content/…

Shareholders wiped out (Shares go to 0)
All depositors will be paid in full, after the moratorium.
Read 11 tweets
31 Oct 20
The Loan compound interest waiver is interesting. Banks and NBFCs have to pay you money, into your account, the interest on interest calculated for the moratorium period. Even if you didn't take the moratorium or paid back in time. financialservices.gov.in/sites/default/…
And the money has to be paid before 5 November. And you don't need to apply or anything - the bank needs to calculate and pay on its own.

And then it can claim the money back from the government.
Interestingly, even a 0% interest loan will pay you money back!

(A Zero percent EMI is actually at a higher interest rate - check: capitalmind.in/2020/01/how-ze…)
Read 4 tweets
6 Oct 20
The Shapoorji default of 100 cr. does not really mean that the SP group doesn't have 100 cr., IMHO.

It's a signal that they want to negotiate. It's basically saying, I'm in default, now let's restructure the loans.
The important point is that they defaulted on Commercial Paper in the money market, not on a loan. A loan default could have been "hidden" within the banking system, because banks get 3 months to negotiate before a loan turns NPA.

They chose to tell the world instead.
Also, there's a little bit that Franklin funds own a good portion of the group bonds, and renegotiating now might be an interesting proposition since holders of those funds might be expecting a haircut anyhow.
Read 5 tweets
11 Sep 20
SEBI decides that Multicap funds must truly be multicap - so min 25% in large caps, min 25% in midcaps and min 25% in smallcaps.

Smallcaps are companies below roughly 7,000 cr. market cap. Cannot absorb the buying.

We're going to see money flow out of multicap funds..
This could fuel a smallcap rally, even in anticipation. However,
...the SEBI rule indicates that at 75% equity, a multicap fund can't have foreign exposure beyond 25%, which will hurt some.
Read 5 tweets

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