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11 Jan, 10 tweets, 4 min read
Today, in "predicted consequences of Brexit turn out to be right", our first entry is some shortages of fresh fruit and veg... dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
Our second entry in "predicted consequences of Brexit turn out to be right" is potential losses of financial services both to the EU and US. This article usefully also pointing out the City will have to change / evolve / innovate.

ft.com/content/d8b906…
So far the impacts of Brexit have been entirely predictable to anyone with a good understanding of economics and trade who isn't also blinded by visceral anti-EU hostility. As per previously, how the UK economy adapts to trade barriers is key, not denying their existence.
Another predicted consequence of Brexit - harder for UK firms to keep their operations in the EU going... most of all though this is a great read from @john_lichfield unherd.com/2021/01/will-b…
And this (issues of shortages of hauliers and vets among others were speculated about before Brexit, but there wasn't complete certainty as to effect).
If anything the first couple of weeks of new UK-EU trade barriers have probably gone a little worse than I expected, and I'm reminded that modern trade is a highly complex network of relationships that fit together in ways we don't exactly know.
What is going on? We know that a large number of Irish lorries are now avoiding the so-called land bridge. That there was a lot of December stockpiling. Some move to unattended containers. Some cancellations. But wasn't expecting this.
One to watch - restrictions on UK cabotage in the EU which as well as affecting haulage also may well seriously damage the UK music logistics service sector (as may absence of free movement for work). musiceducation.global/cabotage-sabot…
I think if you're a UK business with the resources you have to be seriously tempted to set up in Northern Ireland or the EU (particularly if you don't want to get into corruptly obtaining public sector contracts). Didn't Redwood suggest this in fact?
Even this was a predicted consequence of the end of the Brexit transition period. theguardian.com/politics/2021/…

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
12 Jan
This is happening, so what discussion in Parliament? I have to think this is where the scrutiny function simply doesn't work - UK-EU trade is being subject to what at least two of my eminent trade twitter colleagues have called 'shock therapy' and... nothing?
More on fish - this time with regard to the agreements not in place with Norway, Faroes, Greenland. More boats not at sea. And remember, this was supposed to be the UK priority in talks. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…
Those in Parliament who studied in detail every piece of EU legislation for any potential threat to the UK now seem uninterested in things that are affecting UK trade today. I'm sure officials are doing their best. But we needs MPs speaking up. And a Minister in charge.
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
12 Jan
Seeing quite a few suggestions that the specialist committees established under the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement will be used to negotiate changes. That isn't their primary function, which is to ensure the agreement operates smoothly. They probably only meet annually.
Anything beyond minor tweaks to the UK-EU agreement will have to be negotiated at political level, with the Commission receiving a mandate. And if it is a UK request for greater market access, an equal willingness to offer something in return.
Ideally the UK will have a dedicated EU trade team and minister which should be keeping on top of how the agreement is running, problems, potential future asks etc. There should probably also be a dedicated Parliamentary committee or enquiry. Plus build relations with EU members.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
12 Jan
Ten days in and it seems the government's post-Brexit economic policy is to ignore reality, priority and choice, and just claim with no evidence that everything is going to be great. This, needless to say, is dangerous territory. Exhibit 1... 1/ ft.com/content/cdaf23…
Here's a good example of what is currently passing for UK economic policy. The theory the UK can be 'nimble' in regulations has been present since 2016. In 5 years nobody has found the detail. We presume others might have a similar idea. And trade needs regulations to align 2/ Image
There will of course always be someone to blame. Usually the EU. Because they do indeed want to compete with the UK. This is not exactly surprising. A vague UK idea versus the bigger next door market (or indeed a big one over the pond). Who's going to win? 3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
11 Jan
One thing new here I think - a new unilateral preferences scheme later in the year claimed to give developing countries better access to the UK market.

Unfortunately rather lost amongst among excitable but often meaningless or misleading platitude.
For example "We will champion high environmental and animal welfare standards in a science-led approach…" is a meaningless mash-up of trade words. Kind of curious about bringing together countries for some very worthy activities. How? Image
And above all that tricky one that no Minister is going to admit but is going to undermine their argument. If free trade brings opportunity and jobs, then the UK in significantly raising trade barriers must be reducing both. Awkward.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
10 Jan
This is mostly about the difference between being in a single market and customs union, and a 'free trade agreement', plus the fact UK-EU trade is set up for the first and went into the second under-prepared. theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
So you can (and should) be in a permanent negotiation with major trade partners to ease trade issues, but that ultimately can't return you to the trade flows we had before December 31 under this structure of relations, and we shouldn't pretend otherwise.
Nor can we make up for the increase in trade barriers to the EU with agreements with other countries, for the rise in barriers to trade in moving from SM / CU to FTA is much greater than the easing of trade barriers between FTA and WTO.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
9 Jan
Reading of the difficulties around trade from Britain to Northern Ireland and EU I am reminded of US trade colleagues before 2016 complaining about EU customs difficulties. And an MEP from before the single market saying half their work was trying to resolve trade issues.
I'm also reminded that saying the EU was a difficult market to trade with was regarded as Euroscepticism in 2016 but being an EU lover in 2020. I do wonder how much damage will have caused by the UK government only listening to those 'experts' claiming improbable solutions.
Ask any of the EUs neighbours - it is a difficult market to do business with. But it is large and nearby, so you have to trade with it. And by the way more distant large markets aren't that easy either.
Read 4 tweets

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