1) "The only secret is to begin"
2) NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
3) I recently ready this interview with @moxie, the driving force behind @signalapp, and a quote jumped out at me:
‘The only secret is to begin.’ If you want to get good at something or do something, you just do it, and you figure it out along the way.
newyorker.com/magazine/2020/…
‘The only secret is to begin.’ If you want to get good at something or do something, you just do it, and you figure it out along the way.
newyorker.com/magazine/2020/…
4) There are, of course, times when this makes no sense. If you're a brain surgeon, hopefully by the time you transition from cadavers to people you've already figured it out.
But by and large, it's something I've found to be true, and important.
But by and large, it's something I've found to be true, and important.
5) When we founded FTX, we had no idea if we'd ever get customers. And worse, we didn't even know how to know.
So we did the only thing we could think of to find out:
we launched FTX, and tried to get users.
So we did the only thing we could think of to find out:
we launched FTX, and tried to get users.
https://twitter.com/SBF_Alameda/status/1347042093420531715
6) We do lots of surveys of users, to try to figure out what products they want.
But they're mostly noise.
Lots of users just asked for a TSLA/BTC pair. We could list it, and maybe we will! But I'm pretty confident it won't trade much.
That's what history has shown.
But they're mostly noise.
Lots of users just asked for a TSLA/BTC pair. We could list it, and maybe we will! But I'm pretty confident it won't trade much.
That's what history has shown.
7) So we try new listings, and see how they go, and update, and iterate.
We listed TRUMP, and it got lots of attention. But small volume!
Then, in November, TRUMP traded > 200m contracts.
So, now, we're looking into listings more things like that.
ftx.com/trade/NFC-SB-2…
We listed TRUMP, and it got lots of attention. But small volume!
Then, in November, TRUMP traded > 200m contracts.
So, now, we're looking into listings more things like that.
ftx.com/trade/NFC-SB-2…
8) Even things seemingly technological and well defined have edge cases you wouldn't predict.
We're incredibly careful to make sure that there are no large vulnerabilities, and that the exchange runs smoothly!
No matter what, we have to make sure nothing can be too bad.
We're incredibly careful to make sure that there are no large vulnerabilities, and that the exchange runs smoothly!
No matter what, we have to make sure nothing can be too bad.
9) But even if you've secured everything vital, you can't predict everything disruptive.
For instance, the most recent time that FTX had ~1 minute of GUI slowness, this was the cause:
For instance, the most recent time that FTX had ~1 minute of GUI slowness, this was the cause:
10) Sure, you can hide the candy bowl from attackers, but that doesn't mean you won't wake up to graffiti on the outside.
The point, really, is that there are a lot of things you won't predict. And some of those really matter.
And sometimes the only way to find out is to try.
The point, really, is that there are a lot of things you won't predict. And some of those really matter.
And sometimes the only way to find out is to try.
11) @BrendanEich recently started an interesting thread. The question: can Solana actually, really, support an on-chain, decentralized @Twitter?
There were lots of interesting back and forths on it.
https://twitter.com/BrendanEich/status/1347806503323922432
There were lots of interesting back and forths on it.
12) We could debate it forever, but that will never address some of the core questions:
--Will RPC servers be overwhelmed?
--What happens when everyone tweets at once?
--What type of history do people want fast access to?
And above all: would anyone actually use it?
--Will RPC servers be overwhelmed?
--What happens when everyone tweets at once?
--What type of history do people want fast access to?
And above all: would anyone actually use it?
13) And, really, most of the future of Serum, and of Solana, can't be answered analytically.
It depends on what we do.
projectserum.medium.com/an-ultimate-vi…
It depends on what we do.
projectserum.medium.com/an-ultimate-vi…
15) Sometimes people don't build, and they do well anyway.
And it can be tempting to be bitter, or dismissive, or to stop trying.
But that's not really the right thing to do.
Really, the response is:
"They had a huge head start. Imagine where they'd be if they also built?"
And it can be tempting to be bitter, or dismissive, or to stop trying.
But that's not really the right thing to do.
Really, the response is:
"They had a huge head start. Imagine where they'd be if they also built?"
16) (As an aside: I'm incredibly proud of what our team has done the last two years, and how far we've gotten.
We're not the only ones growing, though.
And while we obviously take different approaches, @binance, @HuobiGlobal and @OKEx have fought hard for their success.)
We're not the only ones growing, though.
And while we obviously take different approaches, @binance, @HuobiGlobal and @OKEx have fought hard for their success.)
17) Some projects are "blue chip" because they're old, and that's frankly worth a lot.
Even if they never do anything innovative again, they have a large userbase and adoption.
A few of these come to mind: coingecko.com/en/defi
Even if they never do anything innovative again, they have a large userbase and adoption.
A few of these come to mind: coingecko.com/en/defi
18) The real danger zone -- the place you can't escape from, really -- is if you're new, and *also* don't build.
Maybe that's what the world got wrong about @SushiSwap: it's new, and had tough times.
But it never stopped building.
Maybe that's what the world got wrong about @SushiSwap: it's new, and had tough times.
But it never stopped building.
19) And so when I look at a new project, I ask:
--Does the world need this?
--Will it be well done?
and above all:
--Will it keep pushing forward with all it has?
Because in the end no one guesses exactly the right thing to build the first time.
--Does the world need this?
--Will it be well done?
and above all:
--Will it keep pushing forward with all it has?
Because in the end no one guesses exactly the right thing to build the first time.
20) Everyone has to iterate, and take feedback, and above all keep move forward, if they want to grow bigger than they are.
21) So I guess I disagree with @moxie, in a sense.
And it seems like some of the people around him disagree, too, in a similar way.
And it seems like some of the people around him disagree, too, in a similar way.
22) There are two secrets, really.
One is to begin: for some things, it's the only way to learn.
The other is to take what you learn from it, update, and iterate.
Half the battle is in getting started; the other half is in pushing forward, as hard as you can.
One is to begin: for some things, it's the only way to learn.
The other is to take what you learn from it, update, and iterate.
Half the battle is in getting started; the other half is in pushing forward, as hard as you can.
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