Thread by @SBF_Alameda

1) BAKKT is about to go public.

There are a number of "interesting" things in their deck.

sec.gov/Archives/edgar…

2) They're aiming for a $2b valuation. Where is that coming from?

Well, their 30m+ active users and $500m revenue, of course!*

(*2025 estimate)

3) wait, 2025 projections? Isn't that far away?

Sure, but when you invest, often you're investing in the future!

And, of course, you can paint a pretty compelling road towards 30m users based on their, uh...

Is that a 0?

4) Man would I like to be the guy who typed '0' into the deck and then was like "yeah, totally, 30m, that's what 0 projects to!"

5) Well, ok, sure, how about that $500m? That's pretty neat, huh?

Well, that's projected based off of... uh, $55m this year, or wait sorry they don't give this year. But maybe it's projected based on the... projection for next year of $55m?

6) Note that EBITDA, too -- somehow they're spending $260m/year right now on expenses, to go along with that $55m (projected!) revenue.

7) So where's this $2b really coming from?

I think the basic answer is:

a) c'mon, man, this is ICE, kinda!
b) people invested at a $800m valuation a year ago and BTC was a lot lower then!
c) IPOs are seeing huge inflows right now

8) p.s. NONE OF THIS MEANS BAKKT WILL GO DOWN AND NOT UP. IT MIGHT GO UP. SOMETIMES NUMBERS GO UP.