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12 Jan, 7 tweets, 5 min read
THREAD: 1) Who's winning the trade war? The answer: China.🇨🇳

Ahead of the anniversary of the phase one trade deal, Bloomberg’s @hancocktom & @jdmayger look at the ways Xi Jinping got an edge over Donald Trump. @economics
2) Trump vowed in 2016 to very quickly “start reversing” the U.S. goods trade deficit with China. However, the gap has increased since then, hitting $287 billion in the 11 months to November last year.
3) Chinese export performance improved despite the trade war, with the country’s exports grew each year after Trump took office, including in 2019 when exports to the U.S. fell
4) Trump said tariffs would encourage American manufacturers to move production back home, but there is hardly any evidence of such a shift taking place.

U.S. direct investment into China rose from $12.9 billion in 2016 to $13.3 billion in 2019.
5) Trump claimed China was paying for the tariffs. However, economists found that Chinese exporters didn’t lower prices after the tariffs were imposed. This means U.S. duties were mostly paid by its own companies or consumers, leading to an income loss.
6) Trump claimed tariffs would force China to make reforms to benefit U.S. companies. But improving protections for intellectual property is also in China's interests and something it was already doing.
7) While trade tensions between the U.S. and China didn’t start under Trump, he broadened the fight with the unprecedented tariffs and sanctions on tech companies.

But he’s leaving Joe Biden a blueprint of what worked and what didn’t. More:

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