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Cem Karsan 🥐

@jam_croissant

13 Jan

1/ Vanna’s a widow maker... waging war with her & Gary is exhausting... we were able to take a textbook short at 3803 and take a profit On half at 3771. We will look to add more in a similar way on tomorrow morning’s likely vanna rally again... looking for exuberance once again

2/ in that 9-10am CST window. The growing chorus of bulls emboldened by Vanna’s continued support the last few days gives me confidence that this opportunity will be there again. W/Gary & Vanna behind them the retail exuberance is rising to a fever pitch. This is exactly what we

3/ want to see. But what happens when their backup is gone?? Who’s going to buy this market at these increasingly higher levels this week. Better yet who’s going to buy it @ lower levels when they are forced to sell next week? Not Vanna. She’ll be @ the beach. It ain’t cool bein’

Read 10 tweets

Cem Karsan 🥐

@jam_croissant

12 Jan

https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1348573356954685440

1/x Alright, carry on... Not much has changed. Longer dated IVol was quite bid from the onset, & rightfully so yesterday. As the gamma has been paying for itself, while providing a tail. That said, IVol suppression is still very real. Gary will be hard to shake free from.But it’s

https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1348573356954685440

2/x never easy. the NDX weakness, the rising LT yields, the continued complacency, rise in LT implied Vols... all the signs were there yesterday. It almost always seems like all hope is lost at the end. It takes conviction & a willingness to step out of the party potentially

3/x a little early. The risk/reward is just not there right now. We’ll continue to play this market for stair steps down to sideways action, with calendar put spreads (1/15 to 2/5). Keep opportunistically taking shots to the downside @ our levels, knowing that vanna tho weaker

Read 5 tweets

Cem Karsan 🥐

@jam_croissant

11 Jan

1/x The window we have been targeting for 2 months has officially opened... i Can not imagine a more textbook display of the power of Vanna at expiration as we saw on Friday. The capital building was overrun by an insurrection, but all that that meant was a bigger late day rally.

2/x that ended at ATH on the close. Between Gary the 🦍 & his RVol suppression & his hand off to late day Ivol compression & the Vanna index bid, the 🐻’s never had a chance... but Gary’s getting tired after 2 months battling complacency & Vanna’s 2 week vacation, 1 of her only

3/x 2 week departures of the year (a 5 week OpEx) is quickly approaching on 1/15 morning. That means she’ll be increasingly absent as she prepares for her trip. W/ a $59 1 week straddle & $50 1 day range on Friday, & another $30 overnight drop, it’s hard to see why you wouldn’t

Read 13 tweets

Cem Karsan 🥐

@jam_croissant

6 Jan

https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1346375261986705408

1/x As we’ve been calling for since Nov, today we finally got our 2 ‘Georgia Peaches’🍑 precisely on schedule, as we’ve called for since Aug, & the underlying rotation has confirmed now for months, this matters. This is a historic turning point. It matters not only

https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1346375261986705408

2/x for this year, but for the economic trajectory of America & likely the macroeconomic regime of the developed world for the coming decade. That said, contrary to popular belief, the market does not move based on news in the short term if the positioning doesn’t allow it to.

3/x & our old friend Gary the 🦍 & his sidekick Vanna are positioned to have this market pinned through 1/11. So, as explained ad nauseam, the election news, though fundamentally important, won’t matter to the index itself in the ST. As predicted, the largest moves from the GA

Read 9 tweets

Cem Karsan 🥐

@jam_croissant

5 Jan

https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1345997854242967556

1/x Well you can’t say I didn’t warn you... We’ve been eying that 3770.5 level and the 1/5-1/13 window for many weeks. To get it a day early, @ the lowest edge of the upper range, tells me that there’s understandable concern over the impending outcome of the runoff. As I’ve said

https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1345997854242967556

2/x for months now, the market has severely underpriced both the probability and scale of importance of this event at a critical moment in our macrocyclical history. Today’s action was an attempt to pushback on Gary the 10k lb 🦍. & though it was a valiant effort and definitely

3/x served to reduce his stranglehold on the market, by the end of the day, the result was fairly predictable: failure at our 3770.5 level, followed by a drop to our 1 stdev down of the 20 day, tethering as expected from the continued oversupply ofIVol + building vanna flows,

Read 9 tweets

Cem Karsan 🥐

@jam_croissant

4 Jan

1/xThe party’s almost over. But you’d never know it. Nobody wants to go home...It’s been a hell of a party, but I won’t be sticking around much longer. As discussed, the window for weakness officially opens on Tues after the open somewhere near my 2 objectives of 3770.5 & 3811.25

2/x Election Resolution, Vaccine success, Fed support, Stimulus, TSLA inclusion, & the Santa Claus rally is complete. All of these themes that we have been riding now for 3.5 mths have 1 by 1 been resolved exactly as expected. And so, here we sit @ ATH as predicted w/ extremely

3/x overextended sentiment & positioning by both HF & Retail w/ speculative signs of exuberance in products like Bitcoin & breadth divergences flashing bright RED...Vanna flows have driven the expected rally & commensurate Vol compression to an illogical extreme. But their work

Read 18 tweets

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