1/ Vanna’s a widow maker... waging war with her & Gary is exhausting... we were able to take a textbook short at 3803 and take a profit On half at 3771. We will look to add more in a similar way on tomorrow morning’s likely vanna rally again... looking for exuberance once again
2/ in that 9-10am CST window. The growing chorus of bulls emboldened by Vanna’s continued support the last few days gives me confidence that this opportunity will be there again. W/Gary & Vanna behind them the retail exuberance is rising to a fever pitch. This is exactly what we
3/ want to see. But what happens when their backup is gone?? Who’s going to buy this market at these increasingly higher levels this week. Better yet who’s going to buy it @ lower levels when they are forced to sell next week? Not Vanna. She’ll be @ the beach. It ain’t cool bein’
4/ no Jive Turkey so close to Thanksgiving (OpEx)... Bear Steepening of the yield curve took a breather yesterday & so did the stair steps, which was a bit discouraging, no 2 ways about it. But those pressures are far from over. But... remember w/ Vanna still at 1/2 force SPX was
5/ still just unchanged. W/out EOD vanna flows where would the market have been yesterday? The NDX generals continue to be violently shot 1 by 1 as the rotation continues. The last generals will be BTC & TSLA. Watch them closely... listen closely into the rally. The fear of Covid
6/, the fear of civil war, the fear of contested elections, the fear of higher taxes under a blue wave, the fear of antitrust and greater regulation... All gone. Listen. It’s deafening... despite the secular regime change that lies before us and that is clearly screaming at us in
7/ in the form of massive underlying rotation, if you’re willing to listen... the risks are incredibly high as Biden & Yellen game to the podium to rollout their agenda, but the narrative currently is moar fiscal stimulus is nothing but 🚀fuel for the market...when the truth is
8/ higher rates are almost always the death knell for bubbles... our sell the news event lies close at hand. Look for signs of weakness before 1/22... time is not our friend, as markets need to seize this window of weakness, if they are going to amount to the potential correction
9/9 A technical break of the 20 day on close would be the sign that markets are at risk of a bigger move & not just a correction in time. Watch p/c eqty, watch rates, watch longterm IVol watch the continued rotation, watch BTC & TSLA for signs of retail overreach. Good luck! 🍀

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More from @jam_croissant

14 Jan
1/ Maybe, I need to say less things... Maybe I AM Gary, reflexively helping to pin markets through this otherwise structurally perilous window. 🤔 The market will be higher again tomorrow. $2 Trillion + Moar fiscal stimulus will be announced. The market will cheer this & rally.
2/ rates will likely march higher, the rotation will likely continue. If we are lucky the exuberance will reach a fever pitch and stretch, forcing capitulation. Tho I see Vanna starting to pack her bags for her Friday trip, Gary 🦍is still sitting around the house eating nuggets
3/ And the lower IVol goes, the harder it will be to move him from in front of the 🪟. All the ingredients are there, the window is open. The vanna thrusts will be gone on Fri AM, the sentiment, the retail and HF positioning, the move higher in rates, the shooting of generals,
Read 5 tweets
12 Jan
1/x Alright, carry on... Not much has changed. Longer dated IVol was quite bid from the onset, & rightfully so yesterday. As the gamma has been paying for itself, while providing a tail. That said, IVol suppression is still very real. Gary will be hard to shake free from.But it’s
2/x never easy. the NDX weakness, the rising LT yields, the continued complacency, rise in LT implied Vols... all the signs were there yesterday. It almost always seems like all hope is lost at the end. It takes conviction & a willingness to step out of the party potentially
3/x a little early. The risk/reward is just not there right now. We’ll continue to play this market for stair steps down to sideways action, with calendar put spreads (1/15 to 2/5). Keep opportunistically taking shots to the downside @ our levels, knowing that vanna tho weaker
Read 5 tweets
12 Jan
1/x I want to take a moment to let everyone on here know how moved I have been by the response to the Food Bank Charity Drive last week. We received donations from HF managers to HS students, from Institutional allocators & those who grew up in section 8 housing & who have
2/x experienced food insecurity 1st hand. According to my lead statistician (my 9 y.o. son, pic), 136 people donated for a total contribution of $81,014. That's enough meals to feed a Rose Bowl full of people! The max contribution was a humbling $25,000, mean $596, median $100
3/x I have decided to provide recordings of the session to anyone who donated >$500, & have decided to give the top contributor a 1on1 Q/A. The top 21 donating accounts that will be joining me in person for the Zoom Q/A session are:
Read 7 tweets
11 Jan
1/x The window we have been targeting for 2 months has officially opened... i Can not imagine a more textbook display of the power of Vanna at expiration as we saw on Friday. The capital building was overrun by an insurrection, but all that that meant was a bigger late day rally.
2/x that ended at ATH on the close. Between Gary the 🦍 & his RVol suppression & his hand off to late day Ivol compression & the Vanna index bid, the 🐻’s never had a chance... but Gary’s getting tired after 2 months battling complacency & Vanna’s 2 week vacation, 1 of her only
3/x 2 week departures of the year (a 5 week OpEx) is quickly approaching on 1/15 morning. That means she’ll be increasingly absent as she prepares for her trip. W/ a $59 1 week straddle & $50 1 day range on Friday, & another $30 overnight drop, it’s hard to see why you wouldn’t
Read 13 tweets
6 Jan
1/x As we’ve been calling for since Nov, today we finally got our 2 ‘Georgia Peaches’🍑 precisely on schedule, as we’ve called for since Aug, & the underlying rotation has confirmed now for months, this matters. This is a historic turning point. It matters not only
2/x for this year, but for the economic trajectory of America & likely the macroeconomic regime of the developed world for the coming decade. That said, contrary to popular belief, the market does not move based on news in the short term if the positioning doesn’t allow it to.
3/x & our old friend Gary the 🦍 & his sidekick Vanna are positioned to have this market pinned through 1/11. So, as explained ad nauseam, the election news, though fundamentally important, won’t matter to the index itself in the ST. As predicted, the largest moves from the GA
Read 9 tweets
5 Jan
1/x Well you can’t say I didn’t warn you... We’ve been eying that 3770.5 level and the 1/5-1/13 window for many weeks. To get it a day early, @ the lowest edge of the upper range, tells me that there’s understandable concern over the impending outcome of the runoff. As I’ve said
2/x for months now, the market has severely underpriced both the probability and scale of importance of this event at a critical moment in our macrocyclical history. Today’s action was an attempt to pushback on Gary the 10k lb 🦍. & though it was a valiant effort and definitely
3/x served to reduce his stranglehold on the market, by the end of the day, the result was fairly predictable: failure at our 3770.5 level, followed by a drop to our 1 stdev down of the 20 day, tethering as expected from the continued oversupply ofIVol + building vanna flows,
Read 9 tweets

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