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Tom Moultrie

13 Jan, 6 tweets, 2 min read

New SAMRC Excess Deaths report is out, covering the period to 5 Jan 2021. 83 918 estimates excess natural deaths since 6 May 2020. Mortality in the last week of 2020 (starting 30 Dec) 193% higher than normal in WC; 220% higher in KZN; 131% nationally.

Ridgeplot showing provincial p-scores by province and week.

Report available for download at samrc.ac.za/reports/report…. Some online figures still being updated.

Weekly deaths in SA; highest weekly total _ever_ recorded.

And unnatural deaths fall *dramatically* in the week following the banning of alcohol sales. (Title of figure incorrect; goes up to 5 Jan 2021)

Another way of looking at it: 1/8 of the 84k excess natural deaths estimated to have occurred since 6 May, occurred in the week 30 December 2020 to 5 January 2021.

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More from @tomtom_m

Tom Moultrie

@tomtom_m

8 Oct 20

For those advocating a "Targeted Protection" strategy ... Some observations. [A brief thread]

@StatsSA

1) According to the 2016 South African Community Survey from @StatsSA: In 2016, 4.5m (8.1% of the total) South Africans were over the age of 60. [As the population is aging slowly, this proportion is almost certainly a little higher now, nearly 5 years later]

2) Of these elderly (aged 60+), nearly 2 in 5 (38.0%) live in households with a least one person in primary or secondary school. Adding in those in tertiary education (aged up to 24) increases the proportion to 38.8%.

Read 7 tweets

Tom Moultrie

@tomtom_m

12 Aug 20

Latest excess mortality surveillance report out for South Africa: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
33 500 excess deaths since 6 May.
Also, supplementary report: samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…

In three provinces, excess mortality exceeded 100% (i.e. double the 'normal' number) for two weeks.
samrc.ac.za/sites/default/…

Western Cape mortality still 27% higher than 'normal', 13 weeks after excess deaths emerged.

Read 5 tweets

Tom Moultrie

@tomtom_m

23 Apr 20

As promised: Why we DON’T need ANOTHER South African Covid dashboard that merely re-presents the data in the public domain. (A thread 1/26)

There is a sudden proliferation of public-facing dashboard websites that seek to present data on Covid in South Africa. What do these do; what data do they present; and what insights and value-add can they bring? (2/26)