Thread by @AlexNowrasteh

A common counter-theme is that the Capitol insurrectionists were punished more harshly than the BLM rioters, or at least criticized more. 1/

According to that narrative, BLM rioters ran roughshod in American cities & received zero punishment so of course the Capitol Putschists thought they could get away with it. 2/

Obviously, the BLM rioters were awful & they deserve(d) to be punished for the harm they committed – but is this true? How can we approach understanding this? 3/

I zeroed in on arrest data from DC where both the Capitol insurrection took place & where there were many BLM rioters. This controls for the local laws, curfew issued, department culture, etc. mpdc.dc.gov/sites/default/… 4/

There were 70 unrest-related arrests in DC on January 6th & January 7th. It looks like all of those were from the Capitol insurrection/mob/coup/riot/whatever you want to call it. There are more arrests coming in from around the country, so this is an undercount of the final 5/

Since the first post-George Floyd riots, DC police arrested 737 people for unrest-related offenses. 9.5% of those arrested during the entire period were related to the Capitol insurrection. That leaves 667 arrests, or 90.5%, of unrest arrests that were BLM-riot related. 6/

Is that evidence of bias? Is one side disproportionately arrested relative to the violence and harm committed? There are lots of ways to slice the evidence. Comparing to the worst-case potential harm is *useful* here but there are many other ways to do it. 7/

Much more of the city would have burned down if BLM rioters were unchecked. Then again, much of the country might have burned down if the Capitol insurrectionists were unchecked. 8/

But then again, there were many BLM-rioters and Capitol Hill insurrectionists who weren’t arrested. I'd guess the number of BLM-rioters is greater but I'm not sure and I don't have a strong intuition here. All questions that I want answered. 9/

I'm not sure where this leaves us or even if it moves us much closer to answering the question, but at least you have some info to better understand the world. Or maybe just add more confusion in aid of information overload. fin 10/