Lots of what made me better was understanding investment as a belief about a belief. It is not enough to think that a company is good.

Instead, one must believe that *others* will believe something (that they do not already believe) at some point in the future.
The simple examples I always give: In 2017/2018 people believed Square was a payment processing company. But I believed that it was a services company, and people would eventually come around to this view + price it that way. (pic: my work at the time)
Amazon in 2010 or 2011: The 10-K showed something really funny, the "Other" revenue line was their fastest growing segment. It was because of AWS, which was just starting to dawn on the world. Everyone then thought of Amazon as an e-retail company. Now they know differently.
So the things you must seek are very clear: What are the true things you know that you suspect other people will come to treat as common knowledge within ~1-5 years?

People say all the time that individual investors cannot beat professionals, but that's often comically false.
I once had a draft of investment advice called "Mouse Investing", because even though the humans built the house, the mouse knows the doorways inside and thru that the humans do not. But I shelved it because me giving anyone advice is 99% a bad idea.
So don't listen. 🌜🚬
There's tendency for all public advice to be 100% path of least risk, instead of talking about reasonable growth strategies. Unwise to tell the public most good advice because the public is not good, but average.
Charlie Munger's advice (for example) does not reflect what he does, and probably does not at all reflect what he tells his children/proteges. This is not a bad thing! Simply a charity to the median person. If you want great advice you'll have to dig a lot deeper.

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More from @simonsarris

4 Dec 20
The need for systems to function at scale seems to eventually blind people to (often better) solutions that cannot scale.

The simplest example may be: dietary intervention will fix a huge range of health problems, but the solution that scales is drugs, often just palliative ones
In searching for scale, something is lost. Maybe doctors forget to ask people what their diet is, wait a month, have them check back in, etc. But the fault isn't only the doctor, its the patient too.

There is a saying in online programming help: "What have you tried?"
It can sound harsh, but it must come first.

Something about solutions at scale cause people individually to experiment with their own solutions less. To try less in general. I mention diet/drugs as an obvious example, but there must be many, many less obvious ones.
Read 8 tweets
3 Dec 20
"It's about time we started to take photography seriously and treat it as a hobby." – Elliott Erwitt
"The work I care about is terribly simple. I observe, I try to entertain, but above all, I want pictures that are emotional." – Erwitt
"I don't believe that photography can change the world, but it can show the world changing." – Erwitt
Read 4 tweets
23 Nov 20
I'm not always lounging, but lounging may be the easiest thing to photograph. I don't pick up my phone (much) when working after all!

If it helps, a typical day lately goes like this:
6-7am: wake up, start fire, start coffee
7-9am: I drink coffee with my wife and we have a...
...sort-of "quiet time" where we either read or play with the baby or talk or do almost nothing at all, but just sit there for a few hours. We don't *try* to be productive. A few days lately we've been making clay things in the morning at this time. Then we eat breakfast.
9-5pm: work work. While the weather is good I might also work outside for a bit at lunch

5pm onwards: different things every day. We often spend a long time cooking, up to 1-2 hours daily, but with baby we've had to scale that back a bit.
Read 11 tweets
2 Nov 20
I actually like lots of modern era stuff. I like some bauhaus-inspired physical stuff even though I hate most of its furniture and architecture.
I love old-er porsches. Perfect fusing of machine and organic curves.

I especially love the Nissan Figaro and cars and appliances that are designed in a way that is almost cheerful.
I like austere architecture provided it is fitting, usually in austere places, or very apart from everything else.
Read 4 tweets
2 Nov 20
Everything is minimal. Everything is spare. Even landscaping. Everything built is "midcentury" and "modern". There is no fat left to trim.

Whatever begins a new aesthetic movement will not make economic sense, because it will involve us valuing things beyond the economic, again.
I find it weird that the well-intentioned war on stuff, instead of casting out bad stuff, turned to things like the tiny house movement. Minimalism: your-life-this-time edition.
I want busier, greener, more vital things. There's no vitality in all this new art. It lacks scent and taste.
Read 8 tweets
28 Oct 20
Be hungry always. Be drunk always.

(Don't have a TV?)

I truly have no idea how other people spend their time and money, sometimes it seems baffling to me when I get glimpses, so it's hard to know just how differently I (we) live. I do not think I'm particularly prolific. ImageImage
The answer is we just try stuff. If it doesn't work you can always try something else.

Simi wanted to learn to dye, so she reads about it, puts down the guide and tries it. (you guys have been saving your acorns and onion skins to boil, right?)

There's no substitute for doing. ImageImageImageImage
We got some chickens and I built a coop after learning the basics of building from videos and just fooling around with materials. I had no idea what I was doing. This doesn't always go well, 8 of our chickens died in a coyote attack due to poor pen design

Read 7 tweets

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