Thread by @simonsarris

Lots of what made me better was understanding investment as a belief about a belief. It is not enough to think that a company is good.

Instead, one must believe that *others* will believe something (that they do not already believe) at some point in the future.

https://twitter.com/ikirigin/status/1349410816932470789

The simple examples I always give: In 2017/2018 people believed Square was a payment processing company. But I believed that it was a services company, and people would eventually come around to this view + price it that way. (pic: my work at the time)

Amazon in 2010 or 2011: The 10-K showed something really funny, the "Other" revenue line was their fastest growing segment. It was because of AWS, which was just starting to dawn on the world. Everyone then thought of Amazon as an e-retail company. Now they know differently.

So the things you must seek are very clear: What are the true things you know that you suspect other people will come to treat as common knowledge within ~1-5 years?

People say all the time that individual investors cannot beat professionals, but that's often comically false.

I once had a draft of investment advice called "Mouse Investing", because even though the humans built the house, the mouse knows the doorways inside and thru that the humans do not. But I shelved it because me giving anyone advice is 99% a bad idea.
So don't listen. 🌜🚬

There's tendency for all public advice to be 100% path of least risk, instead of talking about reasonable growth strategies. Unwise to tell the public most good advice because the public is not good, but average.

Charlie Munger's advice (for example) does not reflect what he does, and probably does not at all reflect what he tells his children/proteges. This is not a bad thing! Simply a charity to the median person. If you want great advice you'll have to dig a lot deeper.