So for being so good in 2020 we get a bonus wk53.

Seriously though, 365/7=52.14 + plus leap yrs, causes it periodically

A data scientist's nightmare.
▶️2015 prev one, avgs tricky
▶️3-4 day wks at Xmas/NY disrupt anyway
▶️C19's made normal reporting higher

A perfect storm.

Plus, we start fresh yr, so best to switch to ONS wks31-30 winter reporting.

But, which avg/stdev gully to use?
🥇byDeath: excess is tiny, PHE use this, but @JuliaHB1's just tried it on using this
🥈byPub: overplays, e.g. @toadmeister style dishonesty

Oh, the dilemma.

Honesty, everytime.

▶️PHE daily C19 nos 1.3k⏫over ONS&PHE wks52&53 reports due to xmas/NY
▶️So est ONS wk1: 6.8k C19
▶️Today's daily PHE nos make ONS wk2 est: 8k+ C19

So I project short dashed lines for ONS wks1&2.

Why do people still see this as a game?


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More from @sinichol

14 Jan
Most 🌍 comparisons for C19 go wrong as they don't considering demographics.

For countries I've managed to src detailed death data for, here's total d/1m numbers.

Sure,🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 look similar to 🇧🇷🇵🇪, but just look at the differences <60, 🇵🇪 4x larger.

So what does this mean?

1/9 Image
Basically, fewer >80, means they've had⏫spread, and ⏫younger deaths, but👀equal.

Here ranking⏫2⏬by age are:
▶️20 countries
▶️NY city
▶️The World
That I've 👀at so far.

50% marks the median age, e.g.
🇮🇹 47

So expecting similar deaths overall is silly.

2/9 Image
So how have deaths actually played out?

Here are the props. by age to late Dec for places with detailed data.

Looks like NYC, 🇧🇷 & 🇵🇪 have seen far more in the young.

Now these all have younger pops. so is spread the same? Are diff just down to demographics?

3/9 Image
Read 10 tweets
11 Jan
Trend to Mar was dashed blue in🥇📈, since accruing 75k excess deaths.

But, as🥈📊from covers, accelerated deaths will've been missed in🥇🌊, and accrued deaths will be lowering nonC19 ones now.

So how many were accelerated if this an underestimate?

With testing now⏫the compounding effect we missed in🥇🌊is much clearer in the🥈.

NonC19 (orange) are dropping as wks progress, likely due to many of🥈🌊deaths only accelerating expected ones by a few wks.

This likely happened🥇🌊, but⏬testing meant we couldn't track it.

Looking at these excess to trend deaths, we had 13k nonC19🥇🌊.

Sure, some LD induced, but🥈🌊has none? So likely many were untested C19.

It's what happens to cum. nonC19 excess next that's crucial, dropping 15.5k suggests at least this many C19 deaths have reverted since.

Read 7 tweets

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