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Simon Nicholls Profile picture
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13 Jan, 3 tweets, 2 min read
So for being so good in 2020 we get a bonus wk53.

Seriously though, 365/7=52.14 + plus leap yrs, causes it periodically

A data scientist's nightmare.
▶️2015 prev one, avgs tricky
▶️3-4 day wks at Xmas/NY disrupt anyway
▶️C19's made normal reporting higher

A perfect storm.

1/3
Plus, we start fresh yr, so best to switch to ONS wks31-30 winter reporting.

But, which avg/stdev gully to use?
🥇byDeath: excess is tiny, PHE use this, but @JuliaHB1's just tried it on using this
🥈byPub: overplays, e.g. @toadmeister style dishonesty

Oh, the dilemma.

2/3
Honesty, everytime.

Facts:
▶️PHE daily C19 nos 1.3k⏫over ONS&PHE wks52&53 reports due to xmas/NY
▶️So est ONS wk1: 6.8k C19
▶️Today's daily PHE nos make ONS wk2 est: 8k+ C19

So I project short dashed lines for ONS wks1&2.

Why do people still see this as a game?

3/3

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More from @sinichol

Simon Nicholls Profile picture
14 Jan
Most 🌍 comparisons for C19 go wrong as they don't considering demographics.

For countries I've managed to src detailed death data for, here's total d/1m numbers.

Sure,🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 look similar to 🇧🇷🇵🇪, but just look at the differences <60, 🇵🇪 4x larger.

So what does this mean?

1/9 Image
Basically, fewer >80, means they've had⏫spread, and ⏫younger deaths, but👀equal.

Here ranking⏫2⏬by age are:
▶️20 countries
▶️NY city
▶️The World
That I've 👀at so far.

50% marks the median age, e.g.
🇮🇹 47
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿41
🌍30
🇳🇬18

So expecting similar deaths overall is silly.

2/9 Image
So how have deaths actually played out?

Here are the props. by age to late Dec for places with detailed data.

Looks like NYC, 🇧🇷 & 🇵🇪 have seen far more in the young.

Now these all have younger pops. so is spread the same? Are diff just down to demographics?

3/9 Image
Read 10 tweets
Simon Nicholls Profile picture
11 Jan
Trend to Mar was dashed blue in🥇📈, since accruing 75k excess deaths.

But, as🥈📊from bit.ly/3nCSOsh covers, accelerated deaths will've been missed in🥇🌊, and accrued deaths will be lowering nonC19 ones now.

So how many were accelerated if this an underestimate?

1/7
With testing now⏫the compounding effect we missed in🥇🌊is much clearer in the🥈.

NonC19 (orange) are dropping as wks progress, likely due to many of🥈🌊deaths only accelerating expected ones by a few wks.

This likely happened🥇🌊, but⏬testing meant we couldn't track it.

2/7
Looking at these excess to trend deaths, we had 13k nonC19🥇🌊.

Sure, some LD induced, but🥈🌊has none? So likely many were untested C19.

It's what happens to cum. nonC19 excess next that's crucial, dropping 15.5k suggests at least this many C19 deaths have reverted since.

3/7
Read 7 tweets

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