Let’s assume that the cost estimates of that study are much too optimistic and the true cost of producing the vaccine will be $200 billion in the end – it would still be less than the economic losses in just *month* last year.
That’s just the loss in production (4.5% decline of global GDP according to the IMF: imf.org/external/datam…).
The full ‘cost’ of the pandemic is of course much larger than that – the pandemic’s impact on our daily lives, people being sick, people dying.
The point is:
estimate of the pandemic’s cost that is much too low >> estimate of the cost to produce vaccines that is much higher than what this study estimates
There are very important efforts that have the goal to finance the production of vaccines for countries around the world – but they are not fully funded yet and should be larger so that they can offer vaccines to everyone.
This study estimates the cost to produce the missing vaccines to protect *the entire world* from COVID. mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/1/…
Facilities to produce 16 billion doses of a Moderna type vaccines would only cost around $4 billion, ~$2 a jab.
Easily the best deal of the decade.
If this is even remotely true it is unbelievably exciting news. 10- or 100-times that price would be cheap.
This important article outlines a plan for how to pull it off (it's based on the paper above). nytimes.com/2021/01/12/opi…
Here is a perspective on the $4 billion price tag.
For the total cost of the entire production operation of this vaccine this is the relevant table – and the Moderna type vaccine is the one on the left.
CapEx = total capital investment cost
OpEx = annual operating cost
It was wrong to believe that 'saving the economy' was an alternative to 'saving people's lives’.
If anything it is the other way around and the two goals go together so that countries that kept the health impact of the pandemic lower suffered smaller economic consequences.
This isn’t a new insight, it’s just more up to date data.
It was obvious early on in the pandemic and has been said by many economists for months.
@jensspahn Für diejenigen die sagen, dass ein kleines Land wie Israel (8,9 Millionen) nicht mit Deutschland vergleichbar ist:
Baden–Württemberg hat eine Bevölkerung von 11 Millionen.
Während Baden–Württemberg 17,000 Menschen geimpft hat, hat Israel 1,000,000 geimpft.
Pfizer/Biontech said that they’d provide 50 million doses worldwide within 2020.
There are other vaccines too.
Now, one day before the end of 2020, we find in our global dataset that only 5.4 million people received a vaccine.
• More than 10,000 people die every day.
• Doctors and nurses work beyond their capacity.
• It costs us trillions, businesses are gone, millions unemployed.
Then scientists made the impossible possible and made a vaccine in 12 months.
We should really try to do this fast.
It isn’t impossible to do this rapidly.
Israel’s population receives its protection rapidly.
7.4% of Israel’s population has received the first dose.
Out of a group of 500 people over the age of 80 one dies within a week.
→ This means it will happen often that a person who was just vaccinated dies within a week.
Not due to the vaccine, but due to the high death rate of the people who are vaccinated first.
data in next tweet
The annual death rate for those over 80 is 10.75% in England & Wales
This means the chance of dying in any week is 0.206%.
[= 10.75% per year / 52 weeks]
So that out of a group of 485 people over 80 we have to expect one person to die within a week.
[100/0.206=485.4]
We will carefully monitor whether the various new vaccines have serious side effects.
But it's important to keep the high death rate of elderly people in mind as some might be tempted to conclude that a death on the next day was due to the vaccine even when it was not.