Technology is enabling winner-takes-most markets in an unprecedented manner.
Here’s a thread on how to take advantage of this as an investor.
Technology and the Internet has created network effects. Add a person to the network and the value of the entire network grows, meaning the network becomes more valuable to every person on the network.
Network effects tend to be bi-directional.
For each new seller on Ebay, value is added to buyers (meaning more selection, lower prices, etc).
And for each new buyer on Ebay, value is added to sellers (meaning larger buyer base, more demand and volume).
Strong network effects are extremely difficult to beat.
For example, tough to beat Ebay at it’s game because it has the stronger network effects with auctions thus making hard for other competitors to even get off the ground.
Network effects allow companies to improve their product faster & better, gain more customers, have cheaper & more effective marketing/distribution, and offer a stronger value proposition to customers.
Technology and the Internet are enablers to this market-takes-most phenomena.
Global network effects are superior than local network effects.
This is why Uber (predominantly a local network effect business) doesn’t experience the same global network effects as a global network effect business like Amazon.
Autonomy has strong network effects.
Every Tesla car provides crucial data to train neural nets, which improves FSD experience, which makes Tesla cars more attractive to more people, which sell more cars, which adds more value to entire network. Repeat.
Invest early in companies that are in huge markets with true global network effects and are poised to become the dominant player.
This is profound. Think about what this means. :)
I explain these concepts more in my latest video.
Winner Takes Most - Investing In the Modern Age (Ep. 230)
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In ~5 years, Elon steps down as Tesla CEO, remains as Chief Product Officer
In ~10 years, leaves Tesla completely to focus on SpaceX and Neuralink. Starts selling his TSLA stock.
This is fairly obvious to me.
However if a holding company is formed, Elon will oversee Tesla, SpaceX (and dozens of other ventures tbd) until the day he dies or loses the cognitive function to run it. Could be another 40 years. Makes a big difference.
Personally, I think @elonmusk is the best investor of capital and innovator at scale in our generation, and that might be an understatement.
This is an opportunity to create a structure that would optimize his time and interests the most.
This can be a tremendous advantage for the individual investor who knows how and spends the time to dive deeply into a company.
If you know how to dive deeply into companies + you have the time/motivation to do so + you are super picky with your investments = you've got a true edge in investing.
In investing there's a certain level of competition with other investors because of the scarcity of truly great investments.
The dual (preservation + growth) focus adopted by mainstream investing diverts attention to a large basket of various companies.
My first TSLA stock purchase made in August 2012 is now 100x ($5.94/share to $599.04).
Here's a thread.
At $637/share all my TSLA stock purchases in 2012-2013 will be 100x.
I'm more in humble awe & wonder than I am excited or exuberant. I was never taught the power of a 100x investment, but to have discovered it... it makes me question even more traditional and conventional thinking.
Interesting essay by @paulg about how to be an independent-minded person vs a conventional-thinking person.
He shares some interesting angles but I think he’s missing some key pieces. Here’s a thread of some initial thoughts.
First, independent-minded people have unique values that value/treasure independent thinking and independence over following the crowd. Sometimes those values might be innate and sometimes they might be learned. Or a combo.
One example of the value being learned is when young a person might see gross abuse of conventional thinking or behavior, and concludes they want to avoid that outcome.
In other words, a value for independent-minded needs to be formed somehow.