People who have been vaccinated may think they no longer need to wear a mask or distance from others. Not true.
First, even highly effective vaccines aren’t 100% effective.
Second, we don’t yet know if the vaccine protects against infection or only against illness. In other words, a vaccinated person might still be able to spread the virus, even if they don’t feel sick.
Third, having some people not wear masks would undermine the public good that the more people who wear masks, the less the virus spreads. Practically, there would be no way, for example, for a shopkeeper to know whether an unmasked customer is vaccinated or not.
Finally, new strains may arise that evade the vaccine, although we certainly hope this will not happen.
Remember—even if it feels like it is, the pandemic isn't forever. Things will improve. The pandemic will end, although not nearly soon enough. We all must do our part. Vaccinate. Minimize indoor contacts outside home. Mask up. Improve treatment. Test and follow up appropriately.
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Covid Epi Weekly: Could Covid Kill 1 Million Americans?
New strains are a shot across the bow. A message from the virus: We outnumber you. We’re more persistent. We change and adapt.
It’s up to us: Fight smarter. Collaborate. Protect ourselves and each other better. 1/thread
First, the numbers. Cases, hospitalizations, deaths continue to increase; expect continuing increases. The scale of cases is mind-boggling. More than 1.6 MILLION diagnosed last week - maybe a million total infections a day. bit.ly/2XLsamQ 2/
May be the beginning of a plateau of hospitalizations; too soon to be sure. If we could scale up infusion of monoclonal antibodies for people at risk for hospitalization but not yet very ill, we could reduce this number and the stress on health workers and health systems. 3/
On March 10, 2020, I addressed the question, "Could Covid kill 1 million Americans?"
/thread
I recalled my first meeting with President Obama @BarackObama. It was in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, just as the H1N1 pandemic was beginning to spread widely. The President asked: “We’re not going to see a million deaths in this country, are we, doctor?”
2/
I replied, with more certainty than I felt, “No, Mr. President, we won’t.” Fortunately, that was correct.
In early March 2020, if asked the same question about the Covid pandemic, I would have had to answer: “I hope not, but that’s a possibility.”
3/
Covid Epi Weekly: Humanity vs Virus – the Virus is Winning
Perfect storm: 1. Uncontrolled spread in most of US, 2. Slow vaccine rollout, 3. Worrisome mutations increase transmissibility and could undermine diagnostic testing, antibody treatment and vaccine efficacy.
1/thread
A misleading narrative suggests that uncontrolled spread of Covid shows that public health measures don’t work. The plain truth: most places didn’t stick with the program long enough to get cases to a manageable level and now masking and distancing aren’t being done reliably. 2/
So yes, if you don’t use masks correctly and consistently, they don’t work. And vaccines don't work if people don’t take them. CDC data getting ever more available and useful; Covid Tracking Project remains invaluable. bit.ly/3q2jAMm 3/
Which places have done the best job of protecting people from Covid? A thread.
Best at early action: TAIWAN. Quickly halted flights, quarantined travelers, implemented widespread testing, and quadrupled face mask production within a month. The US now has more cases and deaths every 5 minutes than Taiwan has had to date.
Best at learning from recent epidemics: LIBERIA. Hit hard by Ebola in 2014, Liberia was one of the first countries to screen for Covid at airports and implement comprehensive control measures, including rapid testing, complete contact tracing, and effective quarantine.
Covid Epi Weekly: First Sighting of Vaccine-Induced Immunity
Imagine: You’ve been on a dangerous sea voyage. One of 200 people >65 have died. Safe land is sighted in the distance. Everyone on board must do everything possible to reduce deaths until safe harbor is reached. 1/17
A tale of two realities. Worst spread in US since pandemic started. Highest case, hospitalization, and death rates. Continuing high levels of spread. And at the same time, the most hope we’ve had for a beginning of the end, with highly effective, safe vaccines rolling out. 2/17
First, the epi. GREAT that CDC and HHS have finally been allowed to release — TODAY!!! — some of the information they have. This belongs to the public, not, dammit, to anyone in Washington. The headline says it all ... but 10 months too late. beta.healthdata.gov/download/gqxm-… 3/17
Covid Epi Weekly: A Week of Great Progress for Vaccines…But Also, Unfortunately, for the Virus
Encouraging vaccine news but deeply discouraging lack of action to stop pandemic. Coming weeks will be devastating but numbness to suffering is spreading as rapidly as the virus.1/10
First the good news. Good transparency about vaccines; data about as good as could be. Highly effective including for older people (tho few frail elderly included), and against severe infection. No serious adverse events - but need to track for this when millions vaccinated. 2/10
The road to immunity through vaccination will be bumpy. Production, supply, distribution, uptake, possible adverse events - all huge challenges. New vaccines will likely be approved in the New Year. An enormous challenge, but if the communication is done well, can succeed. 3/10