Covid Epi Weekly: A Week of Great Progress for Vaccines…But Also, Unfortunately, for the Virus
Encouraging vaccine news but deeply discouraging lack of action to stop pandemic. Coming weeks will be devastating but numbness to suffering is spreading as rapidly as the virus.1/10
First the good news. Good transparency about vaccines; data about as good as could be. Highly effective including for older people (tho few frail elderly included), and against severe infection. No serious adverse events - but need to track for this when millions vaccinated. 2/10
The road to immunity through vaccination will be bumpy. Production, supply, distribution, uptake, possible adverse events - all huge challenges. New vaccines will likely be approved in the New Year. An enormous challenge, but if the communication is done well, can succeed. 3/10
But we’re not there yet. It will be months before most people can get vaccinated. We must double down on protection protocols. Post-Thanksgiving surge is driving rates up. December holidays could bring new horrors at the start of 2021. I fear we are numbing to the numbers. 4/10
Cases continue to increase, hospitalizations at highest rate ever, deaths are continuing to increase. Horrifying to see 13% test positivity rate nationally, with 40 states more than 8%. Tho cases in midwest coming down, still very high, and increasing almost everywhere else. 5/10
It gets worse. Horrific disparities. In Rhode Island more than 1 in 8 Latinx people have tested positive vs 1 in 31 white people. In the Dakotas 1 in 8 Black people have tested positive. In South Dakota, 1 in 7 Native Americans has tested positive. bit.ly/344YhRW 6/10
Global disparities will worsen in 2021. Countries in Africa have fragile health systems, quickly overwhelmed by Covid. Vaccination rollout in richer countries in 2021: healthy people in the US before health care workers and nursing home residents in Africa? Indefensible. 7/10
Lessons from 2020:
* Reminder that public health is fundamental to society
* Science is as vulnerable to politics as humans are to viruses
* We will look back and ask why we didn’t do more
* We can control our health - but ONLY if we work together. nbcnews.to/3mcL6V6 8/10
We just released materials to promote safer celebration. By celebrating more safely, we will have more to celebrate and less to regret. Being in a bubble or pod is an important concept, but each bubble is only as strong as its weakest part. bit.ly/3nfkLan 9/10
Merkel: Patience, discipline, and solidarity. We are inextricably connected. Empathy gives us the sense of others’ suffering, joys, and loss. “The death of human empathy is one of the earliest and most telling signs of a culture about to fall into barbarism.” Hannah Arendt 10/end
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Tens of thousands of people have already been vaccinated as part of Covid clinical trials. We haven't seen any significant safety concerns so far, and the FDA just gave an emergency approval for the Pfizer vaccine. Let's talk more about vaccine safety. 1/
An independent committee conducts their own analysis of clinical trial data for all vaccine candidates. Covid vaccines are no exception, and this week the committee released its analysis of the Pfizer vaccine. Vaccine efficacy in preventing Covid after two doses was 95%. 2/
After the second shot, most people in the clinical trial had headache and fatigue and 10-15% felt feverish; this went away within a day or so, and is a sign the vaccine is working. No serious adverse reactions have been identified. 3/
Covid Epi Weekly: Public Health Waking Up From Politics-Induced Coma
Cases, hospitalizations, deaths worsening. Vaccination coming - let’s make sure as many of us as possible live to see that day. We must double down on protection protocols. Together, we’re stronger and safer.1/
Highest case, hospitalization rates in US ever. Cases cresting in much of midwest, still very high. Some of decrease in past week: less testing/care over holiday. My father, who ran intensive care units, commented: “Only very sick people come in on Thanksgiving and Christmas.” 2/
Cresting doesn't mean low. “Lower”: “sky high but not quite as sky high”. Stunning: more than 1 in 3 people in S Dakota infected. By Jan 20, if it were a country, it would have highest death rate in world: ~1 of every 60 people over age 70 killed by this preventable infection. 3/
Covid Epi Weekly Thread: Worser and Worser, Every Week
Cases increasing exponentially in most of US; current epicenter including increasing hospitalizations, deaths is in midwest. Likely half million new infections/day. In Dakotas, an estimated 1 in 11 people have Covid.
1/10
Test positivity increased 10.8%→11.9%. @youyanggu nowcasting 3.3 infections/diagnosed case. Tho not all people estimated to have illness are infectious (max. infectivity before and 5-7 days into illness), nationally ~1 in 100 people infectious today. covid19-projections.com 2/10
Highest hospitalizations ever in US. Deaths increasing. Further increases inevitable - but continued increases are not (more on this later). Midwest is a crescendo. Northeast increasing. South never decreased a lot, now increasing. West increasing. bit.ly/3kQONPy 3/10
Covid Epi (and Research) Weekly: New Highs, New Lows
More cases in more places than ever. More hospitalizations. Sadly, as much division as ever. Encouraging news on vaccines, immunity but many hard months ahead. Together we can reduce spread, save lives, protect jobs. 1/thread
Stunning increase in cases, dangerous increase in hospitalizations, tragic increase in deaths. On March 10 @cyrushapar and I estimated deaths with .5% fatality rate. Sadly, our projections are on track. Act now or half million people could die. bit.ly/35s0nwm 2/
Simple, depressing math. Test positivity increased from 8.4% to 10.5% in a week. Cases are increasing exponentially. Hospitalizations lag cases by 1-2 weeks. Hospitalizations will pass 100,000 within a month. Deaths will reach 2,000 a day by the end of the year. 3/
Covid Epi Weekly: Death Won’t Take a Holiday this Holiday Season
Divided government. Divided country. Just when we most need unity to stop the pandemic. Covid skyrocketing. 100-fold difference between S Dakota and Vermont, and 10x between northeast and upper midwest. 1/thread
How bad is the increase? Bad. Doubling, tripling of cases or more in many communities and states. Much of the country is in the exponential increase phase. Every day of delay cost lives. Basic concept: 1-2 punch. 1: Knock virus down, minimizing social harm. 2: Keep it down. 2/14
First, the numbers. Bad almost everywhere. CDC understatement: “Percent positivity increased [7.2% to 8.2%] among all age groups ... in all regions.” Horrifying. National tsunami. Hospitalizations up 14%, deaths up 8%. Deaths follow hospitalizations by a week or two. 3/14
Hard to imagine a worse confluence. Cases surging in much of US. People are tired of limitations the virus is imposing. Economic harm is real, painful, and persistent. White House communications continue to mislead, divide, deny. 1/
Bottom line (almost) up front: there IS one thing that can stop Covid. For months I’ve said there isn’t, but there is one thing. Not masks. Not travel limitations. Not staying home. Not testing. Not contact tracing. Not isolation. Not quarantine. Not even vaccine.
It’s TRUST.
2/
Around the world, the best predictor of controlling Covid is social cohesion. The understanding that we’re all in this together. We’re all safer when we all mask up, support tracing, and, eventually, get vaccinated. No group can get infection without endangering others. 3/