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15 Jan, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Another city where COVID gave Trump a bit of a boost due to the presence of a College campus: Crookston. The city of 7,764 swung about 2 points towards Trump in 2020 despite the state swinging 5.6 points towards Biden. Obama carried the city twice.
Bush carried the city in 2004 after narrowly losing it in 2000. Bill Clinton carried it twice.
From 2016 to 2020, 5/6 precincts swung towards Trump.
W-6 is the precinct that contains the University of Minnesota Crookston. In 2016, the precinct cast 577 votes for President. In 2020, that precinct only cast 510.
The drop-off isn't as start as some other college precincts in the state, though this one contains a non-campus section that isn't even contiguous and doesn't include the closest residential area where some students likely also live.

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More from @ActorAaronBooth

Aaron Booth Profile picture
15 Jan
A Lindell/Gazelka primary would be interesting. Gazelka slightly ahead of Trump in his deep red #SD09. The big issue for the MNGOP isn't winning these deep red districts, it's figuring out how to win back the metro and Rochester when running statewide.
Even solid DFL wins statewide at this point don't translate into making up a whole lot of ground in #SD09.
If you were the GOP, you would maybe be more interested in trying to appeal to the regions where they have been bleeding votes from. That being said, the bench isn't exactly large and even with Johnson from Hennepin County again in 2018, he barely carried his own district.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
14 Jan
Before Twitter decides to get even more worked up about this: Pretty good chance it was on loan from a museum or a private collection for decoration and is therefore being recalled at the end of the term.
Let’s be realistic here, if you were actually going to steal an item from the permanent WH collection, you would probably not do it in the middle of the day w/ press around, nor would you just carry something out without some sort of case or covering to obscure what the item is.
Let’s also be clear that the permanent collection is managed by the WH curator. The current curator, while appointed by Trump will likely be around for a while yet (previous one served under 3 Presidents) and she has worked in the WH since the Carter administration.
Read 6 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
13 Jan
I will guess no so long as McConnell doesn't decide to convict. If he were to be a yes, then all bets are off.
McConnell holds a ton of sway with the Senate GOP caucus. If McConnell announces a vote to convict, you would expect that would also mean (aside from the more obvious candidates like Romney, Collins, Murkowski, Toomey) dominoes like Thune, Inhofe & Grassley would be on board.
Beyond that it maybe gets a little more speculative and it would take some to publicly change their minds (though McConnell voting to convict would give them cover to do so), maybe Scott (SC), Risch, Barrasso, Shelby, Burr, Blunt, Cornyn, Moore Capito, Sasse....
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
13 Jan
That makes 9 Republicans now voting to impeach (announced+what have voted so far)
Kinsinger
Cheney
Meijer
Rice
Gonzalez
Upton
Herrera Beutler
Newhouse
Katko
Sounds like maybe Rice changed it? Haven't seen that confirmed.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
13 Jan
Random and useless fact: none of the top 23 precincts for number of votes cast in Minnesota were in Minneapolis, St Paul, Rochester, Duluth, St Cloud, Mankato or Moorhead.
Of those 23 largest precincts, Biden won 11 of them (ranging from Biden +24.1 in Shoreview P5 to Biden +2.7 in Chaska W1) and Trump won 12 (ranging from Trump +29.2 in Otsego P2A to Trump +6.7 in Waconia W2).
A table of all 23 precincts:
Read 5 tweets
Aaron Booth Profile picture
13 Jan
So, while there is plenty of other stuff going on today: I got an answer this morning from the @MNSecofState's office about this: the official results are the ones where DFL'ers carried Douglas Township and therefore Clinton carried the county 47.74-43.03.
That being said, I was told by the office that there appears to have been some sort of error when the county compiled the results and prepared their canvasing board report. The results to consider official though is this one unless someone were to take some court action. Image
So, while the certified and official results were the blue Douglas Township, if we are trying to draw comparisons to performance we should probably compare off of this one which is probably how people actually voted. So this is likely the better apples to apples comparison. ImageImage
Read 6 tweets

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