Thread by @tomiahonen

Second Thread: The incurable SPD

Looking at the coming split of the GOP, next up is the era right up to Trump announcing his run in 2015. What happened in the decades right up to that moment. We get SPD, Sarah Palin's Disease. Alas, there is no cure

I like to joke that the GOP got infected by SPD Sarah Palin's Disease but many have pointed out that no, the GOP became sick well before Sarah. And the root cause is Newt Gingrich.

The first corruption of GOP as a politically viable party came via Newt

When the GOP came off its immense power era (2 terms of Reagan, record-national support, leading to rare 3rd term by one-term Daddy Bush) - then came suddenly the populist Bill Clinton - who stole the Republican thunder and stole the MIDDLE GROUND of politics

Newt Gingrich poisoned the GOP political minds that instead of contesting for the middle of the nation - the GOP should instead fight for the base. Poison the middle, enrage the base, and win that way.

Since Bill Clinton won in 1992, GOP has only once won 50% of the election

That once exception was 2004 - when W Bush got the benefit of the 9/11 terrorist attack good will. He was NOT a popular President. It was a sympathy vote. Apart from that, GOP has not gotten over 50% of popular vote once, since Newt Gingrich's mad political 'strategy'

Daddy Bush lost to Bill Clinton
Bob Dole lost to Bill Clinton
W lost popular vote to Al Gore
McCain lost to Obama
Romney lost to Obama
Trump lost popular vote to Hillary
Trump lost to Biden

THIS IS A SUICIDAL POLITICAL STRATEGY

The MAIN reason GOP has held the House about half the time, is GERRYMANDERING (=cheating)

The MAIN reason GOP has half of POTUS victories (W vs Al Gore, Trump vs Hillary) is the archaic non-democratic Electoral College

Because Gerrymandering is political cheating - at some point it will be outlawed or forbidden by a fair SCOTUS. Sooner or later, Gerrymandering will be gone

At that point GOP becomes PERMANENT MINORITY PARTY in USA

Because Electoral College is UNDEMOCRATIC and archaic, a relic of history, it will be ended. Sooner or later. When the Electoral College is removed, the chances of freak Republican 'victories' like W over Al Gore or Trump over Hillary - will end.

From 'winning elections' by popular vote count - basis, the GOP has already ended their ability to contest on an equal basis with DEMs

That is because of Newt Gingrich. Sarah Palin only compounded that mess that Newt created

We do not 'see' how weak the GOP is, because they have nearly half of House and 50/50 in senate, and exactly HALF of all US presidents since Bill Clinton.

That is because of election technical obsolesccence or mistakes like gerrymandering and the Electoral College

It is important to understand, Newt Gingrich understood that a type of 'cheating' can get you SHORT TERM victory at the cost of LONG TERM DAMAGE. And the bastard asshole that Newt is, he took that calculation.

Newt was Trump's FIRST POLITICAL ADVISOR for Trump's 2015 run.

Like Newt Gingrich, Trump never for one second cared about the PARTY of the Republicans, and what harm he does to them. They are political opportunists.

Parasites.

And willing to sacrifice that party for their own BOOK SALES

Trump's 2015 campaign was modeled on Newt's 2012

When Trump entered crowded 2015 race, Trump NEVER THOUGHT he had a CHANCE to win (but he pretended of course that he was going to win). That is why he took ridiculous positions, hired no competent staff, was contibnously hogging free TV air time. It was a BOOK TOUR (like Newt's)