The idea that Trump's actual reliable base is closer to a third of the electorate than half of it, as they so often love to claim, continues to bear out.
https://twitter.com/conradchaffee/status/1350099612216995847
And this sharp drop among Republicans is a fair omen for conviction in the Senate trial.
https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1350097262689611777
Like, these numbers shouldn't be seen as a direct translation to where Senators will fall, but... if 40% of Republican Senators voted to convict him (20 out of 50) and 96% of Democratic Senators voted to convict him (48 out of 50) then that's 68 votes, which is enough.
I suspect that a lot of Republicans won't be voting based on their personal feelings or beliefs as much as where the political weight seems to be falling; if they as a party feel like they're now better off rid of Trump, or the cost of crossing him is still seen as too high.
And if Trump continues to poll downwards with Republicans, I think that's a good indicator. The ones who are sincerely aligned with Trump and Trumpism's worth aspects will acquit no matter what, but there's a lot of windsocks among the rest.
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