Thread by @Hibbo_FPL

The Best West Ham Picks for #DGW19: [Thread]

In this team preview I will scout the respective merits of West Ham United's fantasy options ahead of their enticing home double header against Burnley & West Brom.

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(Data taken for @FFH_HQ with consent)

Season So Far:
On 29th December 2019, David Moyes was reappointed as manager of West Ham United for a second term following the sacking of Manuel Pellegrinni. Moyes secured the club’s Premier League status by guiding West Ham to 16th place in the Premier League with 39 points.

Moyes appears to have left his indelible mark with the club sitting 10th in league on 26pts after 17 games. Notable wins over Wolves (4-0) & Leicester (3-0) & hard fought draws against Man City (1-1) and Tottenham (3-3) demonstrate they are prepared to mix it with the top six.

Tale of the Tape(s):
West Ham:
In terms of threat over the last ten matches per game West Ham rank eleventh for shots (12), tenth for shots on target (4), eighth for shots in the box (8.5), and tenth for big chances (2).

Defensively over the last ten matches per game the Hammers rank tenth for shots conceded (11.6), tenth for shots conceded in the box (7.6), and twelfth for shots on target conceded (4.5). West Ham have displayed defensive solidity and produced six clean sheets this season.

It is noteworthy that over the same period the Hammers rank first amongst all teams for headed goal attempts per game (3.1) and successful crosses per game (6.2). Furthermore, since project restart West Ham rank joint second for headed goals scored.

West Brom:
The underlying goal threat numbers reaffirm just how tragic the West Brom attack is. Over the last ten matches per game they rank worst for shots (7.62), shots on target (2.75), shots in the box (4.0), big chances (1.0), and xG (0.76).

In defence the Baggies rank worst for shots conceded per appearance (16.24), attempts conceded in the box (10.76), shots on target conceded (6.59), and xGC (2.13). It is noteworthy that the Baggies rank worst amongst all teams for headed attempts conceded per appearance (2.59).

Burnley:
Similarly, Burnley underlying numbers for goal threat do not make for pretty reading. Over the last ten matches per game they rank second worst for shots (8.7), shots on target (2.8), and shots in the box (5.4).

In defence, over the last ten matches per game the Clarets rank second worst for shots conceded (15.7), fourth worst for shots conceded in the box (9.8), and fourth worst for shots on target conceded (5). The Clarets have kept five clean sheets in their last ten matches.

Player Watch:
Tomas Soucek:
At the halfway point of the season the "Potato Salad King" joins exalted company in the “FPL Budget Enabler HoF”. After his loan move from Slavia Prague, Soucek scored three times to save West Ham from relegation and win himself a permanent deal.

Both his returns & underlying data were pounced upon by savvy FPL managers after he was kindly priced at £5.0m for this season’s game launch. Despite a relatively quiet start to the season Soucek has scored five goals in his last ten matches this season.

On season to date data Soucek ranks seventh amongst midfielders for shots on target (26). Soucek’s obvious strength is his height and physicality with the Czech international ranking first amongst midfielders for headed goal attempts (13) this season.

His aerial threat may well come to the fore against a West Brom side which rank worst amongst all teams for headed attempts conceded per appearance (2.59). Having accrued ten bonus pts this season the BPS system smiles favourably on Soucek's ability to amass CBI (69) this season.

Aaron Cresswell:
The former Liverpool trainee currently sits as the fourth highest scoring defender in FPL with 77pts. Cresswell has demonstrated his versatility this season playing either left centre-back in a three or the more offensive left-wing back role.

His excellent delivery has provided six assists so far this season, which ranks first amongst all defenders. The English international ranks second amongst all players for successful crosses (33) and first amongst defenders for touches in the final third (175).

Furthermore, he confirms his status as a dead ball specialist by ranking second amongst all players for indirect free kicks taken (19) and second amongst defenders for corners taken (37).

Vladimir Coufal:
David Moyes completed a shrewd piece of transfer business when he prized another Czech international jewel from the Slavia Prague crown. Coufal has taken to the Premier League like a duck to water amassing three assists and four clean sheets in 13 appearance.

Deployed as a marauding right wing back Coufal bests Cresswell’s number of touches in the box (14 v 5) and shots in the box (3 v 2). Furthermore, it may surprise some that Coufal ties with Cresswell for bonus accrued (8).

Michail Antonio:
Having scored eight goals during “Project Restart”, including a worldie against Norwich, the #FPLCommunity had high hopes for Michail Antonio in pre-season despite his reclassification as a striker.

The delivered with three goals in his opening six games however injuries have curtailed his season with 89 minutes of Premier League football since GW6. Analysing the Project Restart” period Antonio ranked first among all players for shots on target (16) and big chances (12).

Furthermore, he ranked second amongst all players for shots (33) and goals (8). Despite Moyes' comments about not rushing Antonio’s recovery two sub appearances in the league and 90 minutes against Stockport Co in the FA Cup hints that a return to starting action may be close.

Conclusion
The constant changes to the fixture schedule present a challenge of unprecedented scale for us as managers. The removal of Leeds vs Southampton, Villa vs Everton & addition of Villa vs Newcastle prior to #DGW19 commencing is something I have never witnessed in FPL.

For many the best laid plans have been dashed at a time when overall game strategy and chip usage is at the forefronts of our minds. However, rather than growing frustrated I believe it is important that we remember how lucky we are.

During this difficult time in all our lives, we still have the simple enjoyment & pleasure that both Premier League football & FPL provide (don't say that to Sterling owners!).

For West Ham options, I feel that given the lack of goal threat posed by both Burnley & West Brom that a defence first approach to West Ham for #DGW19 could prove shrewd for #FPL managers. I truly believe that Aaron Cresswell has the potential for a huge score over both games

Vladimir Coufal provides a cut price route into the West Ham backline for those bench boosting on a budget looking for a defender with a plum double who rotates going forward – look no further.

It is safe to say that Tomas Soucek will carry the hopes of the #FPLCommunity and given his propensity for headed goal attempts and the rate with which West Brom concede them if he is to return I would imagine it will be that game.

Given the lack of match fitness and recent hamstring injury woes I feel personally that backing Michail Antonio would be a step to far for me. However, with top 10k ownership of 0.64% at the close of GW18 he could prove a huge differential if he were to hit a purple patch.

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Peace & good luck for #DGW19.

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