I see two possibilities ahead for the Republican Party.
#1: The party hardens as a right-wing white nationalist party and shrinks in size.
#2: Moderates conservatives retake the party. This, however, creates what political scientists call the "conservative dilemma."
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#1: The party hardens as a right-wing white nationalist party and shrinks in size.
#2: Moderates conservatives retake the party. This, however, creates what political scientists call the "conservative dilemma."
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https://twitter.com/gdbassett/status/1350132638959480832
The conservative dilemma, in a nutshell is this: Conservatives tend to represent the wealth and powerful corporations, therefore the policies they advocate are not appealing to the majority of people.
In other words, they will have trouble winning elections.
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In other words, they will have trouble winning elections.
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In the years since 1954, the Republican Party, while calling itself conservative, solved the conservative dilemma by bringing white nationalists and KKK types into the party, coddling them for their votes while trying to keep them on the sidelines.
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Eventually they did just what you'd expect. They took over.
If the moderate conservatives retake the GOP, they'll have to figure out how to win elections with policies that tend be unpopular with the vote of the right-wing extremists.
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If the moderate conservatives retake the GOP, they'll have to figure out how to win elections with policies that tend be unpopular with the vote of the right-wing extremists.
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They have to be prepared to lose elections for a while until they get their footing and become less toxic.
After the Democrats embraced civil rights under Kennedy and LBJ, they knew they'd lose elections as a result for a while, and they did.
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After the Democrats embraced civil rights under Kennedy and LBJ, they knew they'd lose elections as a result for a while, and they did.
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When I said, under option #1, that if the party hardens as a nationalist / white supremacy party, the numbers will shrink because they will become increasingly toxic.
They will still send kooks and fringe representatives to Congress and retain some control in states.
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They will still send kooks and fringe representatives to Congress and retain some control in states.
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On Jan. 5 -- coincidentally the day before the insurrection -- I wrote this piece arguing that the two parties will cease to be left v. right / liberal v. conservative.
If things continue his way, the two parties will be democracy v. anti-democracy.
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nbcnews.com/think/opinion/…
If things continue his way, the two parties will be democracy v. anti-democracy.
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nbcnews.com/think/opinion/…
Tweet #4 made no sense because of a typo*
I meant they'll have to figure out how to win elections without the support of right wing extremists, or they'll end up right back where they now.
*totally not my fault! It's those keyboard gremlins!
I meant they'll have to figure out how to win elections without the support of right wing extremists, or they'll end up right back where they now.
https://twitter.com/Teri_Kanefield/status/1350258441239973891
*totally not my fault! It's those keyboard gremlins!
I agree and here's the problem in a nutshell: Where do the cuckoos go?
Many were non voters before Trump. They had no interest in politics in a democracy is complicated, slow-moving, and requires compromise. Trump turned them into voters.
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Many were non voters before Trump. They had no interest in politics in a democracy is complicated, slow-moving, and requires compromise. Trump turned them into voters.
https://twitter.com/NorthernSnowdog/status/1350264835578208259
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Maybe they'll slink away again.
When Trump failed to "win" and deliver on his promise (a beautiful autocracy) many felt disgusted with the Republican Party, so maybe they'll go form their own.
So moderates retaking the party is still a possibility.
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When Trump failed to "win" and deliver on his promise (a beautiful autocracy) many felt disgusted with the Republican Party, so maybe they'll go form their own.
So moderates retaking the party is still a possibility.
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Kelly Loeffler provides an interesting example. She swung hard right and hitched her wagon to the crazy train because she knew without Trump voters, she couldn't win.
She lost anyway.
That's the problem the GOP has right now.
They need Trump hardcore voters. . .
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She lost anyway.
That's the problem the GOP has right now.
They need Trump hardcore voters. . .
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. . . but to win elections by appealing to an increasingly radicalized base will require adopting more extreme views.
People liked my prediction that a hardcore extremist GOP will shrink.
That's the good part.
The bad part is it will become increasingly dangerous.
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People liked my prediction that a hardcore extremist GOP will shrink.
That's the good part.
The bad part is it will become increasingly dangerous.
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Since 1988, the GOP has won the popular vote once, in 2004, and that was with the fringe kooks in the party.
The conservative dilemma is how to win without courting the right wing extremists.
The GOP relies on its electoral college advantage. . .
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The conservative dilemma is how to win without courting the right wing extremists.
The GOP relies on its electoral college advantage. . .
https://twitter.com/CamYoung3/status/1350269307121508356…
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. . . but turn Texas blue (and keep Georgia blue) and bye-bye electoral advantage.
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I think this thread also addresses Sam question.
Those turning on Cheney want the party to continue as a radicalized white supremacist party.
Cheney want to stop GOP from sliding all the way into authoritarianism.
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Those turning on Cheney want the party to continue as a radicalized white supremacist party.
Cheney want to stop GOP from sliding all the way into authoritarianism.
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https://twitter.com/samuel66645198/status/1349892793515302913
Political psychologists tell us that some people (about 1/3 of the population) have an authoritarian disposition. We can neutralize the danger they pose but, to quote karenstenner.com some people will never feel comfortable in a democracy.
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https://twitter.com/tatertothead/status/1350275400576897025
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Yes, political psychologists tell us that authoritarians exist on both sides of the political spectrum.
Richard Hofstadter says that the "paranoid style" also exists on the left.
In this context, I mean right-wing authoritarians.
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Richard Hofstadter says that the "paranoid style" also exists on the left.
In this context, I mean right-wing authoritarians.
https://twitter.com/Kovacs88/status/1350279112913424384
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This thread is on my blog, here:
terikanefield-blog.com/is-the-gop-spl…
terikanefield-blog.com/is-the-gop-spl…
The opposite is true. Two parties requires compromise and forming a big tent. The Republican Party is in trouble because they are refusing to do that.
The drafters of the Constitution deliberately avoided a parliamentary system.
The drafters of the Constitution deliberately avoided a parliamentary system.
https://twitter.com/pdh0822/status/1350460934964322305
It's not the two-party system that has forced the GOP to extremism.
It's a number of factors including the fact that they outsourced voter mobilization to groups like the NRA and networks like FOX, which forces them to become more extreme.
It's a number of factors including the fact that they outsourced voter mobilization to groups like the NRA and networks like FOX, which forces them to become more extreme.
Gerrymandering also creates extremism, so one result of the GOP power grabs is a growing extremism.
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