2020 was definitely a step backwards. If you're wondering how great civilizations can end up collapsing: they just have many 2020s in a row over several decades, with exponentially compounding cascade effects at each new development.
Factors of decline are multiplicative. E.g. cultural & educational deterioration leads to an incompetent government. An incompetent government makes a pandemic much worse. A bad pandemic accelerates institutional decline
For the record, I don't think civilization will collapse in the near future (within the next 400 years). Not even as a consequence of catastrophic climate change over the next two centuries. But we will go through some pretty rough patches
Our particular civilization, as a system, features significant structural risk factors that could enable collapse, but it also has important collapse-preventing characteristics. I think the latter factors will win out
Hardships and setbacks can be catalysts of progress -- progress doesn't happen without challenges. Decline happens when we lose the ability to respond to challenges. Collapse happens when decline accelerates past a point of no return
I think the coming hardships are more likely to become catalysts of progress than triggers of collapse
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
