Me @CNN Oct. 19: "What will the United States and the world wake up to on November 4, 2020, the day after Election Day? And could the US endure a close election in which Joe Biden is declared the winner but President Donald J. Trump refuses to concede?"
cnn.com/2020/10/19/opi…
"If the race is close, Trump and his campaign could file lawsuits and use evidence of election administrator incompetence to convince key segments of the American right that Democrats stole the election through deliberate fraud. ..."
"Trump has already sowed distrust in the results by saying without evidence that the only way he loses is if the election is 'rigged.' ..."
"Such a scenario could lead to chaos and disagreement about the results of the election even if election officials do everything by the book and there is no significant fraud or mismanagement of the election."
"We don't know which of these three scenarios will come to pass, but it is clear that a replay of the 2000 election dispute ... but this time with President Trump fanning unsubstantiated claims of fraud on social media, is about the worst of the possible outcomes."

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More from @rickhasen

12 Dec 20
The Supreme Court dismissed Texas’s bill of complaint in the latest high-profile case pushed by Trump allies in an attempt to overturn the results of the election. The Court did not issue an accompanying opinion.
As expected, Justices Alito and Thomas, who had previously stated that the Court does not have discretion to turn down the cases, would have granted the motion to file the complaint but not granted other relief and expressing no view on the merits of the case.
Read 16 tweets
4 Dec 20
When I was on @NewsHour on November 5, I said that Trump had no grand legal strategy to overturn the results of the election. Nothing has changed in a month, other than a streak of losing, poorly conceived and worse executed cases.
pbs.org/newshour/show/…
If anything, the lawsuits in the last weeks have gotten worse
Read 5 tweets
29 Nov 20
You've got to be kidding me.
At the appellate level and Supreme Court level, the appointing judge is the best predictor of how a judge/justice will vote in the highest profile cases.
Not because they are hacks, but because they were chosen for their genuinely held ideology.
I can predict with near certainty how almost every Supreme Court Justice will vote in nearly every election case. And my first rule of thumb is which President appointed the Justice.
*the appointing President
Read 13 tweets
25 Nov 20
#ELB: Donor Sues True the Vote Claiming He Gave $2.5 Million to Fund Jim Bopp Litigation to Expose Fraud in Battleground States to Help Trump, But the Group Withdrew Their Complaints and Did Nothing. He Wants a Refund. electionlawblog.org/?p=119080
The complaint alleges that True the Vote through Bopp finally agreed to give back only $1 million of the $2.5 million to fund absurd voter fraud litigation, in exchange for an agreement not to sue for the rest.
The complaint also alleges that True the Vote withdrew its four lawsuits filed by Bopp in consultation with the Trump campaign.
The reason for the withdrawal have not been made clear publicly.
Read 4 tweets
23 Nov 20
First thing to note about the Trump campaign brief in the 3rd Circuit: it throws Trump's prior counsel under the bus for "incorrectly omitt[ing] numerous allegations and counts"
Key point: the Trump brief says it is not trying to disenfranchise 6.8 million PA voters, "just" throw out about 70,000 votes. BUT it also asks ultimately for court to void election, and let PA legislature choose electors. That IS disenfranchising 6.8 million PA voters.
The brief is procedurally weird, asking casually for a preliminary injunction or temporary restraining order. Trump campaign should be asking for an injunction pending appeal if it wants preliminary relief. But it doesn't. It wants remand to reconsider proposed amended complaint
Read 10 tweets
21 Nov 20
#ELB: Breaking: In Total Loss for Trump Campaign in Its Most Major Remaining Election Case, Federal Court in Pennsylvania Dismisses Case and Denies Motion to File Amended Complaint [link to opinion] electionlawblog.org/?p=118942
The federal court judge just EXCORIATES the Trump campaign for seeking to disenfranchise nearly seven million Pennsylvania voters with SHODDY legal arguments. We told you it would be this way:
From the judge on the merits: "Plaintiffs’ only remaining claim alleges a violation of equal protection. This claim, like Frankenstein’s Monster, has been haphazardly stitched together from two distinct theories in an attempt to avoid controlling precedent."
Read 14 tweets

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