Thread by @cricketwyvern

Update to Sweden.

Now Christmas testing/reporting effects have worked through, we can see a decrease in positive tests of > 40% since peak just before Christmas.

ICUs also coming down steadily. We can expect deaths to follow though backdating means it is hard to be sure yet.

Sweden has introduced some more measures over recent months, though nothing like those seen in UK & elsewhere, e.g.:

24 Nov: ban on more than 8 people gathering
7 Dec: schools for 16+ shut
18 Dec: mask guidance (not law) on public transport
24 Dec: some restrictions on bars

Taking account of the lag from infections, the positive test & ICU data suggest infections peaked around 16th December.

Definitely too late for gatherings to be the cause. Probably too late for schools. Clearly too early for the mask guidance or bar restrictions.

Clearly not having an April lockdown has not spared Sweden a winter resurgence in cases & deaths. At the same time, having v. few restrictions has not led to a worse resurgence than in other countries.

And perhaps most importantly, we have yet more evidence that a big increase in cases & hospitalisations can decrease even in the absence of significant additional restrictions.