Warning signs are flashing red for the property market as indicators suggest prices could plunge by 6%+.

@MariannaHunt5 reveals 5 things the data is telling us about a slump and how the end of the stamp duty holiday could make things worse (a #thread 👇) telegraph.co.uk/property/buy/f…
1️⃣
Property values are already starting to fall, with the drops accelerating each month, according to conveyancing quote data from @reallymoving 👇

Values could slump even further as those who miss the stamp duty holiday try to negotiate a price cut with their seller…
2️⃣
The end of the stamp duty holiday will distort prices further, as history shows 👇

When the current tax holiday ends, on the very same date, there will be an "inevitable" drop in demand, according to @Savills.

@CapEconomics has forecast house price falls of 5% in 2021…
3️⃣
The fallout will be concentrated in certain regions, with around 325,000 buyers predicted to miss out on the tax saving, according to @TwentyCi 👇

In the South East, almost 50,000 people are expected to miss the deadline…
4️⃣
The slump will come at the worst possible time, as the end of April sees the life support of furlough turned off.

Unemployment affects how much people can pay for property, so house prices tend to fall when the jobless rate rises 👇
5️⃣
Those who lose their job may end up defaulting on their mortgage repayments and find their house is repossessed by their lender.

Forced sales negatively impact on prices, as repossessed homes tend to be sold quickly at a discount 👇
There's a whole lot more analysis and reaction in @MariannaHunt5's report here: telegraph.co.uk/property/buy/f…
#StampOutTheDuty

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More from @TeleProperty

13 Jan
~ a #thread 👇

The @Telegraph is today launching #StampOutTheDuty – a campaign calling on the Government to extend the stamp duty holiday to prevent chaos from engulfing the property market and derailing Britain's post-Covid recovery telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/pr…
325,000 buyers mired in Covid-related delays will miss out on savings of up to £15,000 if the tax break is scrapped, according to @TwentyCi.

It's feared 100,000+ of them could then pull out of deals, potentially hammering sales volumes, harming the economy and hitting prices…
"If the Chancellor does stop the holiday, I just think chaos will ensue," said @PhilSpencerTV.

"It only takes one person in the chain for four or five sales to fall through. The whole thing will come to a crashing halt and deals will fall off the shelf left, right and centre"…
Read 6 tweets

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