I will make my daily NHS England Coronavirus data tweet a pinned tweet for easy access...
(...NB they are all in this thread, now, which might make retrieving any given date's tweet a bit easier! 🤞🙂)
(...NB they are all in this thread, now, which might make retrieving any given date's tweet a bit easier! 🤞🙂)
Admissions continue to fall; the rise of in-patient & ICU numbers still slowing, but not flat or falling yet; daily deaths 7-day rolling average flirting with 1,000...
...in Nov the peaks for in-pts & ICU were 10 & 12 days after the adms peak: this would => 22 & 24 Jan now.
...in Nov the peaks for in-pts & ICU were 10 & 12 days after the adms peak: this would => 22 & 24 Jan now.
Admissions continue to fall; in-patient nos. plateaued; ICU nos. almost plateaued; 3 days have had >1,000 deaths since 12 Jan (7-day rolling avge now 970)...
...all trends following anticipated time courses, so far; if we continue to follow restrictions, this will continue.
...all trends following anticipated time courses, so far; if we continue to follow restrictions, this will continue.
Admissions continue to fall; in-patients plateauing; ICU nearly plateaued; deaths have now crossed both the Spring daily peak (975) & 1,000/day...
...it's likely ICU nos. will plateau this w/e; deaths should also plateau this coming week (?reaching ~1,200 by the end of Jan).
...it's likely ICU nos. will plateau this w/e; deaths should also plateau this coming week (?reaching ~1,200 by the end of Jan).
Trends continue:
admissions↘
in-patients ➡
ICU pts ↗ (nearly ➡)
deaths ↗ (relatively slowly)...
All as expected; both in-pt & ICU nos will be beginning to fall by this time next week.
It will take a few weeks for pressure on NHS to ease to 'usu winter pressure'
admissions↘
in-patients ➡
ICU pts ↗ (nearly ➡)
deaths ↗ (relatively slowly)...
All as expected; both in-pt & ICU nos will be beginning to fall by this time next week.
It will take a few weeks for pressure on NHS to ease to 'usu winter pressure'
The only new datum uploaded today is one more day's admissions (for Thu 21 Jan)...
...confirms continuing fall (currently roughly linear from 12 Jan, & ⬇ing by ~30 cases/day).
With ~3k admissions/day currently, this would take ~3 months to fall to zero, if continuing thus!
...confirms continuing fall (currently roughly linear from 12 Jan, & ⬇ing by ~30 cases/day).
With ~3k admissions/day currently, this would take ~3 months to fall to zero, if continuing thus!
Three days' hospital data uploaded today; confirm trends:
- admissions ↘
- in-pts ↘
- ICU pts ➡
- deaths ↗
Earlier predictions reasonably accurate so far;
Deaths might plateau later this week/early next week.
The NHS is still *much* busier than 'usual winters'.
- admissions ↘
- in-pts ↘
- ICU pts ➡
- deaths ↗
Earlier predictions reasonably accurate so far;
Deaths might plateau later this week/early next week.
The NHS is still *much* busier than 'usual winters'.
Trends largely continue:
- admissions ↘
- in-pts ↘
- ICU pts ↗/➡
- deaths ↗
IP nos just started to fall (Mon 33,287; Tue 33,047)
ICU nos just about peaked (Mon 3,672; Tue 3,676)
Deaths still rising (daily total 1,149 on 19 Jan - & still rising).
Hang on in there...
- admissions ↘
- in-pts ↘
- ICU pts ↗/➡
- deaths ↗
IP nos just started to fall (Mon 33,287; Tue 33,047)
ICU nos just about peaked (Mon 3,672; Tue 3,676)
Deaths still rising (daily total 1,149 on 19 Jan - & still rising).
Hang on in there...
Admissions falling more quickly now
In-patient numbers falling increasingly quickly
ICU nos have peaked, falling slightly
Deaths still rising (?more slowly, but lagged data)...
...encouraging, but still all well above Spring peaks.
In-patient numbers falling increasingly quickly
ICU nos have peaked, falling slightly
Deaths still rising (?more slowly, but lagged data)...
...encouraging, but still all well above Spring peaks.
No new hosp data uploaded since y'day.
Deaths *appear* to be plateauing, BUT it's the w/e, & there is still a backlog from the past month or so...
...we will find out next week whether it's a true plateau (as predicted in early Jan), or just delayed data coming through.
Deaths *appear* to be plateauing, BUT it's the w/e, & there is still a backlog from the past month or so...
...we will find out next week whether it's a true plateau (as predicted in early Jan), or just delayed data coming through.
Trends all as expected:
- all hospital indicators falling;
- deaths possibly plateauing
(although may still be a w/e, lagged data, effect)...
...this coming week may well settle the latter point.
- all hospital indicators falling;
- deaths possibly plateauing
(although may still be a w/e, lagged data, effect)...
...this coming week may well settle the latter point.
Trends continue:
- admissions, descent rate reducing slightly
- in-pt & ICU numbers falling
- deaths appear to have plateaued...
...NB
1) a lot fewer deaths uploaded today (??w/e effect)
2) no of pts in ICU with COVID-19 still more than
*total* number of ICU beds in 2019/20
- admissions, descent rate reducing slightly
- in-pt & ICU numbers falling
- deaths appear to have plateaued...
...NB
1) a lot fewer deaths uploaded today (??w/e effect)
2) no of pts in ICU with COVID-19 still more than
*total* number of ICU beds in 2019/20
Hospital nos all falling; deaths do seem to be plateauing...
...remains encouraging, BUT compared to Spring peak:
- in-pt nos. 57% higher
- ICU pt nos. 22% higher
At current (linear) fall of 553 & 27 in-pts & ICU pts per day, it'll take ~3wks to reach *the Spring peaks*!
...remains encouraging, BUT compared to Spring peak:
- in-pt nos. 57% higher
- ICU pt nos. 22% higher
At current (linear) fall of 553 & 27 in-pts & ICU pts per day, it'll take ~3wks to reach *the Spring peaks*!
Hospital nos. continue to fall, roughly linearly.
Deaths do seem to be plateauing (NB at a rate ~18% higher than the Spring peak)...
...we'll know much better re death nos trend by the weekend, I suspect.
NB at current rate, it'll take ≥2 wks to fall to Spring peak for in-pts.
Deaths do seem to be plateauing (NB at a rate ~18% higher than the Spring peak)...
...we'll know much better re death nos trend by the weekend, I suspect.
NB at current rate, it'll take ≥2 wks to fall to Spring peak for in-pts.
Fall in admissions & ICU pts seem to be slowing a little; in-pt nos still falling approx linearly; deaths still appear to be plateauing (though *very* lagged data an alternative possibility)...
...all except admissions still well over Spring peaks
Need to keep steady on course!
...all except admissions still well over Spring peaks
Need to keep steady on course!
After an initial alarm because of a (very rare!) NHS dashboard data entry error (two days' data into one 😳), with correct data in place, the trends continue, with a blip in admissions on 1 Feb...
...I'm inceasingly persuaded the deaths curve is flat/ starting to fall, now.
...I'm inceasingly persuaded the deaths curve is flat/ starting to fall, now.
All curves falling now, although the in-patient numbers fall may be beginning to slow down...
...possible lagged data notwithstanding, the (7-day averaged) deaths/day, at 1003, have almost fallen to the Spring peak (975).
Hospitals still much fuller than at Spring peak, though.
...possible lagged data notwithstanding, the (7-day averaged) deaths/day, at 1003, have almost fallen to the Spring peak (975).
Hospitals still much fuller than at Spring peak, though.
Trends continuing as before...
...deaths (928) have now fallen below the Spring peak (975), and at current rates in-pt & ICU nos. will fall below their Spring peaks in ~10 & ~8 days respectively.
Steady as we go!
...deaths (928) have now fallen below the Spring peak (975), and at current rates in-pt & ICU nos. will fall below their Spring peaks in ~10 & ~8 days respectively.
Steady as we go!
Trends continue, not slowing (if anything, a steeper fall since the end of last week)...
...at this rate, the Spring peaks will be reached by, or before, the end of the week; let's hope the descent continues thus (NB that is still a lot of pressure in the NHS).
...at this rate, the Spring peaks will be reached by, or before, the end of the week; let's hope the descent continues thus (NB that is still a lot of pressure in the NHS).
Trends continue; no slowing in the descents of the curves...
...hospital beds (both general & ICU) are still under an awful lot of pressure; we need this trajectory to continue for *at least three weeks* just to get to only 50% of usu nos of ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 pts.
...hospital beds (both general & ICU) are still under an awful lot of pressure; we need this trajectory to continue for *at least three weeks* just to get to only 50% of usu nos of ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 pts.
Encouraging stability in all the downward trends so far...
...at this rate, by the end of the month we will have:
~10,000 in-pts, &
~2,200 ICU pts
This is far from over.
[NB
1) see charts
2) usu pre-pandemic Engl. ICU capacity is ~4,000
3) rate may change!]
...at this rate, by the end of the month we will have:
~10,000 in-pts, &
~2,200 ICU pts
This is far from over.
[NB
1) see charts
2) usu pre-pandemic Engl. ICU capacity is ~4,000
3) rate may change!]
No change in trends...
...continuing in the right direction.
[today's tweet late because NHS data uploaded 2hrs late, & my spreadsheet crashed—had to update two days' worth of data!🙄]
...continuing in the right direction.
[today's tweet late because NHS data uploaded 2hrs late, & my spreadsheet crashed—had to update two days' worth of data!🙄]
No hospital data uploaded today; deaths following the previous trend...
...NB
1,188 deaths added today are from across four months:
Nov 1
Dec366
Jan 248
Feb573
This illustrates the lagged nature of death data (esp if coroner's cases).
...NB
1,188 deaths added today are from across four months:
Nov 1
Dec366
Jan 248
Feb573
This illustrates the lagged nature of death data (esp if coroner's cases).
Trends all steady; death rates possibly falling a little more...
...inflection in death rate poss from lag in data, or an effect of the vaccine; no similar in admission rates (but those most likely to die might have done so at home, without admission).
Time will tell.
...inflection in death rate poss from lag in data, or an effect of the vaccine; no similar in admission rates (but those most likely to die might have done so at home, without admission).
Time will tell.
All trends continue as for the past couple of weeks...
...this is likely largely the effect of the lockdown; no obvious inflection in the wake of the vaccination programme yet (but needs an age-banded analysis to be sure).
...this is likely largely the effect of the lockdown; no obvious inflection in the wake of the vaccination programme yet (but needs an age-banded analysis to be sure).
No new hospital data today, but I realised I hadn't included yesterdays data in yesterday's plot! (🙄). Now included.
This hasn't affected the trends themselves, or their interpretation; ICU nos below Spring peak...
...steady progress, likely largely thanks to the lockdown.
This hasn't affected the trends themselves, or their interpretation; ICU nos below Spring peak...
...steady progress, likely largely thanks to the lockdown.
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