Ben See Profile picture
19 Jan, 7 tweets, 3 min read
The prospect of the near total obliteration of summer Arctic sea-ice before 2035 should really be focussing all our minds on achieving zero carbon emissions in the 2020s.
"The prospect of loss of sea-ice by 2035 should really be focussing all our minds on achieving a low-carbon world as soon as humanly feasible."phys.org/news/2020-08-e…
“We’re never going to return to conditions like there were in the 1980s and 90s,” she says. “It’s not recovering. There are going to be ups and downs, but it’s never going to go back to what it was, given our current climate state today.”

2035...or before.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/0…
What scientists refer to as the first "ice-free" Arctic summer year will occur when the Arctic has less than 1 million square kilometers of sea ice.eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nat…
Plenty of climate scientists dispute how catastrophic this will be. We know Arctic ecosystems are collapsing and any further exacerbation of global warming represents extinction for some species. Arctic experts expect global consequences & profound impacts.
'Global consequences' :

'An overwhelming majority of Arctic ice experts say that recent data offer powerful evidence that summer sea ice has passed a point of no return.'

e360.yale.edu/features/tippi…
From 2018: “This will have far-reaching implications, well beyond the Arctic,” says Julienne Stroeve of University College London, UK. “The impact of this sea-ice loss on climate at lower latitudes and sea-level rise will be profound.”

physicsworld.com/a/late-summer-…

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More from @ClimateBen

20 Jan
Every US president since Lyndon Johnson has known about the catastrophic effects of greenhouse gases and done nothing but make things worse.

Now for a reasonable chance of decent survival there are only 9 years left to stop all emissions from the whole global industrial economy.
1. For a 67 per cent chance of not exceeding catastrophic 1.5C of global warming, 'total CO2 emissions must not exceed 230 billion tonnes. This is about five years of current emissions, or reaching net-zero emissions by 2030.'

However...

theconversation.com/new-research-s…
2. in reality we could hit 1.5C in the next 5 years, so we may well only have 1 - 8 years left.

This stark reality should provoke massive emergency action, but relatively few people are aware because the media remain silent.

Time to tell everyone.

nature.com/articles/d4158…
Read 6 tweets
19 Jan
Will we ever get a strong, lasting impression from ad-dependent, billionaire-funded, corporate media that many forest ecosystems are at risk of ecological collapse; that insect pollinators of crops & wild plants are under threat; and that severe global warming is now unavoidable?
1. “the land system will act to accelerate climate change rather than slow it down" (by 2040)

🔺findings challenge the possibility of limiting warming to 1.5-2°C

🔺calls into question the assumption that the climate would even be stable at those levels
insideclimatenews.org/news/13012021/…
Insect pollinators of crops and wild plants are under threat globally and their decline or loss could have profound environmental consequences.

🔺land‐use intensification, climate change, and the spread of alien species & diseases responsible for declines
esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.18…
Read 4 tweets
19 Jan
It's been a TERRIBLE year for ecological-climate action:

🔺we can expect a massive rebound in emissions and continued habitat destruction

🔺for 1.5C we need 0 emissions in the 2020s (even that may not be enough)

🔺1.5-2C may not give a stable climate according to new research
1. We have no crystal balls so 2021 could be a turning point, of course. But it would take something absolutely extraordinary to suddenly stop the destruction that's happening in this particularly awful stage of industrial capitalism.

2. Using a 1750 baseline, 1.5C probably isn't possible anymore. Using a 19th/20th century baseline still only gives us until 2030 to slash emissions to zero for a '67 percent' chance of not exceeding 1.5C.
theconversation.com/new-research-s…
Read 5 tweets
19 Jan
For a 67% chance of not exceeding 1.5C of global warming, we need utterly extraordinary emergency action now to reach net-zero emissions in the 2020s.

theconversation.com/new-research-s…
In reality we could hit 1.5C in just 4 years time.

nature.com/articles/d4158…
'For a 67 per cent chance, total CO2 emissions must not exceed 230 billion tonnes. This is about five years of current emissions, or reaching net-zero emissions by 2030'

The budget is really 0 as we're already in the theoretical Hothouse Earth danger zone.theconversation.com/new-research-s…
Read 4 tweets
18 Jan
The temperature tipping point of the terrestrial biosphere lies not at the end of the century or beyond, but within the next 20 to 30 years

[THREAD]
Given the temperature limits of land carbon uptake presented here, without mitigating warming, we will cross the temperature threshold of the most productive biomes by midcentury, after which the land sink will degrade to only ~50% of current capacity if adaptation does not occur
While biomes will eventually shift spatially in response to warming, this process is unlikely to be a smooth migration, but rather a rapid disturbance-driven loss of present biomes (with additional emissions of carbon to the atmosphere),
Read 11 tweets
17 Jan
Now would be a very good time for newspapers to investigate whether massive agricultural failures look likely by 2027 - 2041 due to a combination of profoundly dangerous climate change including global warming of 1.5-2°C, soil destruction, water crises, and pollinator declines.
Major impacts are already happening.

Threads:
Agriculture is now beginning to shift from 'moderate' risk to 'high' risk as we move towards the 2030s/40s.

Read 6 tweets

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