1/ Notes from @ClaireThielke episode at @InvestLikeBest

Claire is Managing Director (APAC) at Hines which manages >$144 Bn AUM. She finished her undergrad at Stanford in 2.5 yrs, was a professional track and field athlete for USA, and ran a marathon on Everest (what?!!).
2/ "So I think like a lot of investing, cities and real estate investing, it's about pattern recognition. Cities, a lot of them rhyme with each other. I mean a city at the end of the day, it's an API for the industry." (Loved these three sentences)

Tattoo index is pretty cool.
3/ China's urbanization rate mimics what it was in the US at the end of WWII.

But it also means they have a cheat code as they know what happens at certain nodes just looking at the US.
4/ "Airplanes aren't planes, sometimes they're time machines and that you can sort of travel back and forth in time. So maybe they're at the World War II stage in one
way, but the malls are way far ahead time machine to the future relative to the US."

Also, payments.
5/ "We think of the choosing a right place or choosing the right time in some ways almost part of the beta and that the real alpha is the building execution"
6/ Future offices are likely to be more like college campuses.
7/ Two cities to look out for: Miami, and Detroit

Her point about ROI on public art just deeply resonates with me. Whenever I go to a new city, it's the one thing that creates a lasting impression in my mind.
8/ Absolutely loved the forthrightness her coach instilled in the very beginning of the process. The broader theme should come handy beyond athletics.
9/ Tomorrow Time: another idea that should have broader application in many other settings.

"you're always chasing this version of you that's just beyond yourself. You try to take that, process out calculus into everything else that you do."
End/ Link to the episode, including transcript: joincolossus.com/episodes/72331…

All my twitter threads: mbi-deepdives.com/twitter-thread…

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More from @borrowed_ideas

11 Jan
1/ Thread: Adios, America

Circa 1920, my grandpa was born in rural Bangladesh. Of course, there was no Bangladesh back then. It was still part of the British Empire.

~30 years later, the land he was born became part of Pakistan. Two and half decades later, it became Bangladesh.
2/ Even though the tumultuous history of the land evolved, my illiterate farmer grandpa never moved from his village. He toiled long and hard throughout his life.

He died peacefully in 2000 in the very village he was born.
3/ I too was born in rural Bangladesh, but moved with my parents in the nearby city when I was still a toddler.

During my late-teens, I came to Dhaka, the Capital of Bangladesh. As a first gen college grad, Dhaka seemed somewhat foreign in the first few months.
Read 8 tweets
10 Jan
1/ Thread: Thoughts on $FB

Earlier today, I asked on twitter which of the big tech is most likely to have lower market cap in 10 years than it is today.

Perhaps predictably, ~54% people voted for FB.

Is the crowd exhibiting wisdom or too much first-order thinking?
2/ Let me make a case for both.

$FB's business model probably fails the Lindy test.

In 2012, it had zero revenue from mobile ads. IG was acquired in 2012 which also had zero revenue.

Of ~$80 Bn 2020 revenue of $FB, >90% comes from mobile ads. IG alone contributes ~$15 Bn.
3/ Think about the velocity of change for a second. The two things that make FB part of today's big tech club made zero revenue just 8 years back.

Here's the problem though. If the velocity of change remains true today, FB might have an issue.
Read 11 tweets
9 Jan
1/ Thread: Twitter's Pandora's Box

If you are not American, chances are extremely high you probably yawn when a political leader who lost the election allege and claim the election was rigged.
2/ If Trump claiming election as fraud and inspiring supporters to protest lead to permanent ban on Twitter, what will happen to all those opposition leaders in all those countries?

And yes, those claims do lead to protest, to violence, and to many unfortunate deaths.
3/ Many such protests were indeed organized with the help of social media.

In many cases, those opposition claims are real as the incumbent autocratic may end up getting 80%+ votes by organizing a staged election.
Read 11 tweets
8 Jan
1/ Notes from @_ram_ episode @InvestLikeBest

A bit late to this, but I was really looking forward to listening to Ram on Patrick's podcast.

Ram is one of the most kind, humble, smart, and approachable PMs active on fintwit, and boy he did not disappoint.

Here are my notes.
2/ Lots of quick and dirty method of estimating the potential of internet.

Ram thinks global e-commerce and marketplace is a ~$40 Tn opportunity in 2040.

Show me the numbers? See the image.
3/ That's just products and services sold on the internet.

On top of that, you have advertisement which is typically ~1% of GDP. Advertising itself can make ~$10 Tn worth of businesses.

No wonder $AMZN wants a piece of that even if it comes at the expense of consumer experience
Read 14 tweets
31 Dec 20
1/ Thread: The danger of ridiculing early tech

Survivorship bias is real, but it is always humbling to look back and see how different revolutionary tech was perceived when they first came to the scene.

Let's look at telephones, cars, and social media.
2/ When Edison was working on the idea of telephone, he was trying to work out a way so that telegraph operators could talk to each other.

As telegraph operators were scattered all over the world, a telephone would be a great help for operators to coordinate with each other.
3/ What about ordinary people talking to each other?

"What are you smoking, Monsieur? Why would people from faraway places talk to each other? And do you know what it would cost you?"
Read 11 tweets
30 Dec 20
1/ Thread: Limits to the asymmetric payoff for Bitcoin

Most of my friends who bought btc tell me the asymmetry embedded in the payoff for buying bitcoin.

Just buy 1% of your portfolio; you really don’t need to understand anything.
2/ If btc reaches a million, you are set for life. If it’s zero, you won’t lose much sleep.

It makes perfect sense and for a long time, I agreed with them. The math is undeniable.
3/ Yet, the more I thought about it, the more I realized the real concern is not that whether btc reaches zero or a million when you have 1% exposure.

The real concern is what happens AFTER it reaches a million.

Here’s I think what will happen.
Read 11 tweets

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