Thread by @TheDailyMao

1/ Some Biden officials have referred to this list as an "opportunity [...] to be patient and extract concessions from China in exchange for tactical adjustments to policy"

They're just going to keep most of it and make token moves while trying to get China to make big ones

https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1351963167648227328

2/ This is why I think China should just refuse negotiations and go hard in the paint. No sense in starting negotiations when your opponent feels confident. Gotta soften up their political consensus first. There are a few levers China should push on:

3/ First, to raise the implicit costs of US intervention in Taiwan, update China's nuclear posture: state that any attack on Chinese territory (including Taiwan island) or on Chinese merchant shipping by the forces of a nuclear power may incur an 'unrestricted' Chinese response

4/ Time the update with some DF-41 tests to drive the point home that US intervention re Taiwan will likely mean fallout over the Acela Corridor

5/ Second, begin a quiet campaign of nonstop Taiwan reunification exercises. Unlike the recent PLAAF exercises, hold these under a media gag order. Give the US the sense that Operation Taiwan could happen at any time if the TSMC ban holds.

6/ Third, begin accelerated plans to shift out of USD-denominated reserve assets and reach out to the EU/Russia/Middle East about a "multi-currency" future. Make preparations for US financial sanctions that might come if an Operation does happen.

7/ Concurrently, unwind UST positions in a jerky/chunky manner at the same time as Treasury auctions, so as to create uncertainty in the Treasury market around a disorderly unwind. Do this in parallel with the Biden admin's spending proposals to maximize pain for US fiscal policy

8/ Begin targeted 'fines' against US companies in sectors where EU/Japanese/Korean firms are also competing in China. Not enough to drive them away, but enough to erode their position in China. Tesla is a great target here, as the EU carmakers want to succeed in China's EV market

9/ There are areas where cooperation can make sense, like climate, energy, healthcare, etc. China should participate, but do the minimum necessary, while setting up alternate fora for each topic led by China that drives alternate global consensus

10/ Lastly, China should set up a commission to investigate, document, and publicize US human rights abuses in Iraq and Afghanistan, with the goals of 1) getting Ir/Afg to call for reparations from the US and 2) pressing Biden officials over their support for the wars in Iraq/Afg

end/ These actions would be reversible, give China relative control of the escalation ladder, create meaningful costs for the Biden strategy of trying to extract concessions from Trump-era policies, and set the stage for a sustainable and fair US-China relationship.