@realmoney
Most should not be short stocks.
I have made a living shorting stocks - but it takes a lot of conviction, research and patience.
The same observers who questioned my sanity when I went all in long in March, 2020, are confident in their extreme optimism today and
critical of my all-in short call now.
Based on the historical and traditional metrics that have survived a century of investing (in my chart in "Sell Stocks Now") , stocks are as overbought and overvalued as in any point in the last ten years. Speculation is rhyming with past
tops.
In my career I have rarely seen such a favorable reward v risk ratio to the downside as I see today - for reasons mentioned previously.
The reversal of opinion and the thriving bullish "Group Stink" consensus reminds me of a phrase I like to mention - "price has a way of
changing sentiment." (h/t @hmeisler)
As I mentioned yesterday only four months after Citi's Chuck Prince "the music is still playing and we are still dancing" quote in the Summer of 2007, the banks was technically insolvent. My friends, inside and part of mgt of C had no idea.
Run, don't walk, to read Tom Friedman's latest column, which begins with a truly brilliant paragraph:
Folks, we just survived something really crazy awful: four years of a president without shame, backed by
a party without spine, amplified by a network without integrity, each pumping out conspiracy theories without truth, brought directly to our brains by social networks without ethics — all heated up by a pandemic without mercy.
It’s amazing that our whole system didn’t blow,
because the country really had become like a giant overheated steam engine. What we saw in the Capitol last week were the bolts and hinges starting to come loose. The departure of Donald J. Trump from the White House and the depletion of his enablers’ power in the Senate aren’t
When this is all over, nobody will admit to ever having supported @realDonaldTrump except the Far Right.
Throughout the Presidency Trump has, with " a wink and a nod," enlisted the Far Right scum.
For four years Trump has "succeeded" in sanctioning violence yet the
Republican Party ignored his core threat that violence would follow an adverse Election result. The siege of the Capitol wasn’t a departure for Trump, it was an apotheosis. In 2019 he told Breitbart “I have the tough people, but they
don’t play it tough — until they go to a certain point, and then it would be very bad, very bad.”
The Republican Party failed to sanction the gun-toting anti-lockdown activists who stormed the Michigan statehouse last year and dismissed a plot to kidnap and publicly execute
From yesterday on @realmoney@WilfredFrost@andrewrsorkin@beckyquick
Jan 14, 2021 | 07:50 AM EST DOUG KASS
The Easy Money Has Been Made in Banks
* The setup into the current reporting period is poor
* With bank stocks elevated, in-line to slightly lower reports, relative to
consensus expectations, could modestly disappoint traders and investors - particularly if my market concerns pan out
* Consider hedging bank stocks or writing calls against positions now
There was near a universal view that bank stocks were unattractive in March-April last
year.
When the ($XLF) was about $21, and I was buying, it was over $31.50 in pre-market trading, one analyst on our site said it was patently foolish to expect a rally in the sector. As to leading the market it was next to unimaginable to that observer.
@realmoney
Jan 14, 2021 | 11:25 AM EST DOUG KASS
Now Hedged in Banks
With this morning's sharp move higher in bank stocks I have hedged out my entire long position (10% weighting) with an ($XLF) short.
I have shorted XLF from the opening on a scale higher. ($31.41 to $31.54).
I expect backing and filling from here over the next several months - but that is likely contingent on my market view being correct.
If I am correct I will cover XLF (down 10% or more) - moving me, again, back long.
I am trying to be as transparent as possible in this
explanation.
I find it interesting that some of the same observers who questioned my sanity in buying months ago are now questioning these sales.
Frankly, I did not expect the bank stocks to pivot higher in such rapid order - I had expected a more gradual and "orderly" rise
Capitalism has found morality and has come to the rescue of a political system that has taken a terrible turn over the recent period with Trump at the helm. Signature Bank, Deutsche Bank, scores of corporations and to the chagrin of Trump, the PGA has
jettisoned its relationship.
Worse than political carnage with be the swift decline of the Trump brand and his businesses. Who, besides his sycophants, want to be associated with the Trump brand? Companies look for safety, stability and confidence of its stakeholders.
If you still worship at his altar, look in the mirror. If you are a member of Mar a Lago, Trump golf clubs or frequent Trump resorts, look in the mirror. And ask yourself why did this revelation take so long? @jimcramer@tomkeene@SquawkCNBC@cnbcfastmoney@andrewrsorkin