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Caitlin Rivers, PhD Profile picture
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21 Jan, 6 tweets, 4 min read
I could not be more thrilled that the Biden-Harris Administration has announced an intention to create a National Center for Epidemic Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics @dylanbgeorge 1/ whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
@dylanbgeorge This idea has a long history, with dozens of brilliant scientists, policymakers and innovators behind the wheel, including many who roll up their sleeves every day to make sure our leaders have what they need to fight outbreaks effectively @dylanbgeorge 2/
foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
But they shouldn’t have to self-organize or do this on a volunteer basis. We need a standing capability that can advance the science by creating and improve epidemic models and outbreak analytics… @dylanbgeorge 3/
centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publi…
and when there is a crisis – which happens most years – we need experts in the room when decisions are being made, with the information, forecasts, and analyses on hand to ensure those decisions are they best they can be. @dylanbgeorge 4/
obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/…
The next big puzzle piece is funding. The President has emphasized the need to find genomic surveillance, and outbreak analytics in his supplemental budget request. We need to invest in our nation’s pandemic preparedness, including this center. @dylanbgeorge 5/
I cannot wait to see how this unfolds, and I am excited that the inimitable @BethCameron_DC will be overseeing this effort. She is a fantastic leader, and we are all lucky she is back in the White House. @dylanbgeorge 6/6

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Caitlin Rivers, PhD Profile picture
18 Jan
There are around 30 big counties, with a combined population of over 12 million, where upwards of 40% of the population has been infected. It's stunning how hard the pandemic has hit part of the US.

Estimates from covid19-projections.com/infections/sum…
% total infected is a modeled number that tries to estimate missed cases. You can read more here: covid19-projections.com/about/#infecti… @youyanggu
Many of these counties have large institutions like prisons and jails, universities, and manufacturing or food production facilities. The NYT keeps a useful list of outbreaks in group settings. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Read 4 tweets
Caitlin Rivers, PhD Profile picture
4 Sep 20
I’m volunteering w/ the Covid-19 Symptom Data Challenge. Colleagues at CMU and UMD have been surveying people (e.g. on Facebook) whether they or people they know have covid-like symptoms. The goal is to explore how this data can be useful for tracking the virus. 1/
The CMU team has some analyses exploring uses for the data. They found, for example, an association between covid-like illness and covid incidence at the state level in July. 2/ Image
This seems promising at the county level as well, but there is a lot more exploration of the data to be done. What else can we do with this data, and how can it be useful to inform public health? That’s what the challenge is about – data discovery for public health. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Caitlin Rivers, PhD Profile picture
7 Aug 20
Today I had the honor of testifying on reopening K12 schools for the House Select Committee on the Coronavirus Crisis. Here is what I said. 1/
It was exactly 3 mos ago that I last testified - we had 25-30k cases and >2k deaths daily. I said then that I feared complacency, that we would become numb to the crisis and would again create the conditions that led to us being the worst affected country in the world. 2/
Since then, we have new therapies, we’ve made progress on finding a vaccine, and many more tests are available. But in other ways, the complacency I feared has come to pass. We have 55k+ new cases daily, and deaths are again rising. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Caitlin Rivers, PhD Profile picture
29 Jul 20
If I told you in March or April that we would still have a 60-70k daily cases in July, what would you think? Now carry that forward. Where do we want to be in Sep, Oct, Nov & how do we get there? Answering that question has to be priority #1. It's time to reset the US response 1/
Colleagues and I are out with a new report today with 10 recommendations for how the US should chart a new course. Here’s a thread with a quick rundown of the 10 -
centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publi…
1. Encourage and, where appropriate, mandate things like physical distancing, masks, and limit on indoor gatherings. Without these measures in place, it will be difficult to maintain control of an outbreak or turn the corner on an outbreak that is accelerating.
Read 13 tweets
Caitlin Rivers, PhD Profile picture
24 Jul 20
Second thread. The way I see it, two different things are happening related to CDC and schools. First, there was a lot useful material released today. There are decision tools and checklists for parents, guidance on mitigation measures, and more epi. cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
This is the work of the brilliant CDC scientists who have devoted their lives to improving public health, and it is the CDC we need front and center in this time of crisis. 2/
And then there was the statement on “the importance of reopening America’s Schools in the Fall” which motivated my last thread. If I had an edit button I make clearer that my comments are about the statement. The other guidance is more substantive. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Caitlin Rivers, PhD Profile picture
24 Jul 20
CDC just published a doc purporting to weigh the public health risks and education benefits of reopening schools. Having recently participated in a National Academies of Science committee on just that, I am not impressed at the paucity of this document 1/ cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
Covid is the reason schools were closed. It should be central to decisions about reopening in-person. To do otherwise is unfair to our families, teachers & communities. That doesn’t mean schools can’t open in person. But this is a weighty decision that deserves careful thought 2/
There is almost no epidemiology in this. There are only 2 paras on the science, and one of those is mostly devoted to flu. Consideration given to 1) the role of kids in transmission both in school and the broader community and 2) the risk of severe disease is nearly absent 3/
Read 10 tweets

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