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21 Jan, 9 tweets, 2 min read
1/9 Thread: $AMZN vs $SHOP vs $ETSY

I have listened to my fair share of podcasts related to $ETSY, but I thought @HarryStebbings interview of Josh Silverman, CEO of Etsy, was an exceptional one.

It not only helped me understand Josh better, but also gave a lot to ponder.
2/9 Josh categorically denies that Etsy is a niche e-commerce player focusing on handmade stuff.

He thinks Etsy is competing on the "special" segment which is anything but niche.
3/9 At the very end of the episode, he said something interesting. Let me quote him:

“I think there is an implicit notion in the market that there is going to be millions of individual places to buy things online. If you are following the market cap of Shopify, Wix, Stripe etc..
4/9...the thesis must be there will be millions of individual shops on the internet that are all trying to sell you stuff. I find the thesis exceptionally unlikely. The brain can only remember a couple of brands. I think the world is consolidating around fewer and fewer places...
5/9 ...to buy things online.”

"I think Amazon will continue to be the default for everyone in the western world. And the more the world has a default, the more it yearns for an antidote to that default. I think Etsy is incredibly well-positioned to be the antidote of Amazon"
6/9 I absolutely agree that there will be a sizable market for whoever that becomes the "default" antidote of Amazon.

But I cannot say I am quite certain about it being Etsy at the expense of Shopify.

$SHOP is 6x $ETSY's mcap, so market clearly sides with SHOP.
7/9 I think it will be fascinating to see how these battles unravel in the next 10 years. I know Toby is widely revered, but I believe Josh can be a worthy competitor too.

Etsy and Shopify could be THE battle to watch in this decade.
8/9 Finally, I want to thank @CaffeinatedInv1 for recommending me this podcast as he rightly thought I would find it interesting.

Fintwit is truly an incredible community.
9/9 Again, highly recommended episode if you are interested in Etsy or e-commerce in general:

Episode link: thetwentyminutevc.com/joshsilverman/

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More from @borrowed_ideas

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Profile picture
24 Jan
1/8 Thread: The boon and bane of writing well

Mark Sellers once gave a famous speech to a group of Harvard MBAs. It was titled, "So You Want To Be The Next Warren Buffett? How’s Your Writing?"

In his speech, he equated writing well to being able to think clearly. Image
2/8 It makes intuitive sense, and in general, I agree.

If you want to be the next "Buffett", you probably do need to write clearly, speak eloquently, be quantitatively oriented, and perhaps more importantly, be lucky.
3/8 But I wonder whether it is harder for good writers to change their mind.

The whole thing sort of reminds me of competitive debates. During college, I got the opportunity to adjudicate competitive debates. I even went to World University Debating Championship.
Read 8 tweets
Mostly Borrowed Ideas Profile picture
22 Jan
1/4 Short thread: Am I concentrated by choice?

My personal portfolio is fairly concentrated with just 11 stocks, but top 4 is ~70% of total portfolio.

Is this level of concentration by choice? My guess is probably not. Here's why.
2/4 As an analyst, I probably know just 25-30 stocks reasonably well.

If you know just 25-30 stocks, do you have any other alternative than being concentrated?

Unless I am eliminating more stocks that I know fairly well, how much stock picking is really happening?
3/4 I wonder whether concentrated portfolio on fintwit is *mostly* a function of age.

Younger investors have little alternative than being concentrated. It is only the older investors (or anyone who actually understand a lot of companies) who probably have an actual choice.
Read 4 tweets
Mostly Borrowed Ideas Profile picture
20 Jan
1/ Notes from @ClaireThielke episode at @InvestLikeBest

Claire is Managing Director (APAC) at Hines which manages >$144 Bn AUM. She finished her undergrad at Stanford in 2.5 yrs, was a professional track and field athlete for USA, and ran a marathon on Everest (what?!!).
2/ "So I think like a lot of investing, cities and real estate investing, it's about pattern recognition. Cities, a lot of them rhyme with each other. I mean a city at the end of the day, it's an API for the industry." (Loved these three sentences)

Tattoo index is pretty cool.
3/ China's urbanization rate mimics what it was in the US at the end of WWII.

But it also means they have a cheat code as they know what happens at certain nodes just looking at the US.
Read 10 tweets
Mostly Borrowed Ideas Profile picture
11 Jan
1/ Thread: Adios, America

Circa 1920, my grandpa was born in rural Bangladesh. Of course, there was no Bangladesh back then. It was still part of the British Empire.

~30 years later, the land he was born became part of Pakistan. Two and half decades later, it became Bangladesh.
2/ Even though the tumultuous history of the land evolved, my illiterate farmer grandpa never moved from his village. He toiled long and hard throughout his life.

He died peacefully in 2000 in the very village he was born.
3/ I too was born in rural Bangladesh, but moved with my parents in the nearby city when I was still a toddler.

During my late-teens, I came to Dhaka, the Capital of Bangladesh. As a first gen college grad, Dhaka seemed somewhat foreign in the first few months.
Read 8 tweets
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10 Jan
1/ Thread: Thoughts on $FB

Earlier today, I asked on twitter which of the big tech is most likely to have lower market cap in 10 years than it is today.

Perhaps predictably, ~54% people voted for FB.

Is the crowd exhibiting wisdom or too much first-order thinking?
2/ Let me make a case for both.

$FB's business model probably fails the Lindy test.

In 2012, it had zero revenue from mobile ads. IG was acquired in 2012 which also had zero revenue.

Of ~$80 Bn 2020 revenue of $FB, >90% comes from mobile ads. IG alone contributes ~$15 Bn.
3/ Think about the velocity of change for a second. The two things that make FB part of today's big tech club made zero revenue just 8 years back.

Here's the problem though. If the velocity of change remains true today, FB might have an issue.
Read 11 tweets
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9 Jan
1/ Thread: Twitter's Pandora's Box

If you are not American, chances are extremely high you probably yawn when a political leader who lost the election allege and claim the election was rigged.
2/ If Trump claiming election as fraud and inspiring supporters to protest lead to permanent ban on Twitter, what will happen to all those opposition leaders in all those countries?

And yes, those claims do lead to protest, to violence, and to many unfortunate deaths.
3/ Many such protests were indeed organized with the help of social media.

In many cases, those opposition claims are real as the incumbent autocratic may end up getting 80%+ votes by organizing a staged election.
Read 11 tweets

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