Unless you’ve been living under a rock with noise-canceling headphones on, you know that the left has been clamoring for Schumer to blow up the legislative filibuster.
@PunchbowlNews@LeaderMcConnell Progressive groups are spending $$ it to happen. @AJentleson has made a cottage industry out advocating for the elimination of the 60-vote threshold. @AOC wants it gone. @BarackObama too. Even Harry Reid says it’s a matter of when, not if, the filibuster is gets thrown out.
@PunchbowlNews@LeaderMcConnell@AJentleson@AOC@BarackObama And that’s what’s holding up the entire Senate -- McConnell's ask of Schumer to guarantee he won't blow up the filibuster. The chamber can’t efficiently function without an organizing resolution, and without some clarity on the filibuster, they won't have an organizing resolution
ourth, McConnell notes that 26 Senate Democrats and now Vice President Kamala Harris signed a 2017 letter saying they wanted to keep the 60-vote threshold.
There are several Democrats who are on McConnell's side right now: Sens. Joe Manchin (W-Va.), Jon Tester (Mont.), Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) and a few others. But if this standoff drags out, even these Democrats might begin to side with Schumer.
In the end, the two leaders may have to settle for a verbal agreement, a truce of sorts. Schumer commits to keeping the filibuster, as long as McConnell agrees to work in a reasonable manner.
Alternatively, Schumer could just blow up the filibuster as part of the organizing resolution, if he can get all his Democrats in line.
Or a bipartisan group of senators may get tired of waiting and force the leaders into a deal.
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One of the trends we’ve noticed in this Congress is that middle-of-the-road caucuses are getting larger and attempting to grab more power.
@PunchbowlNews We noted yesterday that the bipartisan Senate group that helped lay the groundwork for a Covid deal grew to 16 -- the Senate Sweet 16™, as we’re calling it.
News here from the House: The Problem Solvers Caucus has grown to 56 members, evenly split between Republicans and Democrats. @RepJoshG and @RepTomReed chair this group
STRATEGY MEMO: To nibble, or wait for the big bite
Here’s a q that you’ll hear a lot in Washington over the next two years: Is legislative incrementalism worth it? Should an all-dem DC ever nibble, or should it wait for the opportunity to take a big bite?
@PunchbowlNews There are elements in the WH and figures in the House Dem Caucus pushing to pass a bill next week to plus up vaccine money and send targeted, $1,400 dir checks . This would be an immediate victory for the Biden administration and a Dem Congress that’s just coming to power
@PunchbowlNews But there are some in the Senate and others in the House who have voiced concern over this strategy. They don’t want to pass the popular stuff alone, they want to hold out for a larger deal that includes direct checks, vaccine money and a lot more.
The Senate has been in session for just one day, and here’s all we can say about impeachment: No Senate Republican we spoke to believes there are 16 votes to convict Donald Trump unless some new, unforeseen piece of evidence surfaces.
@PunchbowlNews Beyond that, the Senate GOP has more questions than answers about the upcoming Trump trial.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has made clear how upset he is over Trump’s role in the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. But …
@PunchbowlNews t in public and private, McConnell isn’t telling fellow Republicans whether he’ll vote to convict Trump, and he’s saying it’s up to them to decide for themselves.
The Biden WH is quietly working the ideological middle of Congress, briefing Rs and Ds alike on their legislative priorities and pending nominees, and pressing them to adopt elements of their agenda.
@PunchbowlNews@POTUS@JoeBiden This is new: In the next few days, NEC Dir @BrianCDeese will meet w a bipartisan group of 16 sens about Covid relief and other economic matters.
@PunchbowlNews@POTUS@JoeBiden@BrianCDeese There are eight Ds and eight Rs in this group. The gang -- which we are going to try to call the Sweet 16 -- is an expanded group of the bipartisan coalition that put together the outlines of the last Covid deal.
OK now let's game this out. The question everyone is asking is when can we expect this to get to the floor and into law. Fair question. A few things to think about on that front.
@PunchbowlNews Will Ds use budget reconciliation, which requires a simple majority for passage? Will they blow up the filibuster? Will they try to negotiate with Republicans to get 60? As of now, they say they want to use regular order, and pass this with a 60-vote threshold. That may change\.
These are 2 ppl worth paying attn to. If you’re a Biden supporter, you can dislike Rubio & hate the GOP all you want, but Ds have to get 10 Rs to support this package if they don’t blow up the filibuster or use reconciliation.